Your thoughts?
Posted by Saltah'na (Member # 33) on :
It's curious that NK would deny (and continues to deny) outright that it sank the ship. Why not say that it sunk the vessel and accuse the South of provocation and stuff like that? But then again, NK is not normal.
Posted by Mars Needs Women (Member # 1505) on :
North Korea is a joke, they have been, always will be. They keep playing this game of saber rattling. The nation wants to act like the bad boy in town, but they really have nothing to back it up. They just want aid again since they can barely maintain their nation as it is.
Posted by Reverend (Member # 335) on :
It's just sabre rattling as usual, but there is a chance they'll push their luck just a little too far at some point.
I suspect what it'll really come down to is if and to what degree Beijing is willing to back them. Either way it's dangerous because the North Korean leadership does seem to be just stupid enough to use nukes if pushed.
Posted by Mars Needs Women (Member # 1505) on :
Do they even have nukes?
Posted by Reverend (Member # 335) on :
You know, I'm not actually sure. I'm never certain if it's NK or Iran that has weapons grade material but promises it's only going to be used in reactors.
Either way with so much former Soviet warheads unaccounted for I wouldn't be surprised if they got a hold of some. Hell, to be honest I wouldn't be surprised if the Nato countries have been buying them on the sly too.
Posted by MinutiaeMan (Member # 444) on :
Iran's the one that swears up and down that they don't want nuclear weapons, but seems to be also working on weapons-grade refinement of uranium.
North Korea's the one that kicked out the inspectors from their existing nuclear reactor, started processing plutonium (I think), and exploded a test nuke underground that was either a really low-powered nuke or a dud. And they've kept up processing enough to have a dozen or so nukes by now. (Or more.)
But then, it's easy to get them confused when both are run by power-mad dictators that hate the US/Europe/Soulless Minions of Orthodoxy. (Though in Iran's case, that's a slight oversimplification. Just a slight one.)
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
quote:Originally posted by Mars Needs Women: North Korea is a joke, they have been, always will be. They keep playing this game of saber rattling. The nation wants to act like the bad boy in town, but they really have nothing to back it up. They just want aid again since they can barely maintain their nation as it is.
Yet they have a ready army of 750,000, thousands of cannons and missiles pointed directly across the DMZ at South Korea and have missiles that can reach Japan (if not, it seems, very relably).
I heard an intriguing idea today on NPR today- the idea that NK is provoking some rebuke so they can withdraw from all talks and obligations- closing up like a clam untill they can sort out Kim's (eventual) replacment. That's coming soon and they dont want to look weak and disorganized if the little psycho kicks the bucket.
It might also be a test of exactly what they can get away with just now- US forces are stretched incredibly thin and there's no way we could completely defend SK in an all-out shooting war- despite us having 28,500 troops already stationed there to do just that.
I guess we'll know things are going downhill if the US sends a carrier into the area.
Hmmm...I wonder how this plays in Hapan just now, what with the movement to remove all US military bases from the country (and an odd nationalist revision of the history of WWII in some circles, painting Japan as the victim of US aggression).
Posted by shikaru808 (Member # 2080) on :
Troop numbers are no longer a factor in modern warfare anymore, if you can recall Iraq had the fourth largest army in the world and we all know how well that went. If NK decides to start some shit, believe me, we'll be ready. The only thing that sucks is that the North has hundreds of fixed artillery pieces already pre-aimed at Seoul.
Lets just hope this all goes smoothly.
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
Yeah, but as a psychological weapon, all of NK's soldiers have been fitted with Kim's haircut.
the screaming on both sides would never end- no shots fired.
BTW, have I mentioned how much I love your sig-line?
Posted by Guardian 2000 (Member # 743) on :
quote:Originally posted by Saltah'na: It's curious that NK would deny (and continues to deny) outright that it sank the ship.
Not necessarily. Perhaps they had themselves a Star Trek III moment ("A lucky shot!") and now are wetting themselves because their crappy torpedo actually worked and they've now actually done something for a change.
They bluster irrationally, yes, but I can't help but wonder if they might realize that a line's been crossed now.
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
MOre likely is that divisive elements in NK's military tried to provoke a response to solidify their own power in NK's shadowy heirarchy.
Hell, it could have been some general's pitch to become the top man- or at least the man pulling the strings of whoever replaces Kim.
NK's big strength is that no one fucking knows.
Are they nuts? Is it all some game of brinksmanship that they play in a delusional manner? No one fucking knows and so they get treated like a live grenade.
Posted by WizArtist II (Member # 1425) on :
quote:Originally posted by Jason Abbadon: Hmmm...I wonder how this plays in Hapan just now, what with the movement to remove all US military bases from the country (and an odd nationalist revision of the history of WWII in some circles, painting Japan as the victim of US aggression).
My understanding is that the "Revision" from the Japanese Politically Correct view also denies the atrocities that became known as 'The Rape of Nanking' along with a denial that the Japanese military were prepared to defend the homeland to the death if the U.S. had invaded. I imagine they have also redacted any mention of "Unit 731" as well.
Posted by Pensive's Wetness (Member # 1203) on :
Revisionism... hmmm...
Something that's bothered me about Macross Frontier (n0t really off-topic) but i've not asked the more proper forum of Macross World (i'm afraid it'll be pruned or worse there)... In Macross Frontier's end episodes, Leon the acting president, after orcistrating the assassination of the proper leadership, rallied the MF military and civials into thinking that attacking the regional homeworld of the Varja was proper. you hear it in the tone that one NUNS pilot rants in fighting successfully against varja drones, you almost see it in how varja flee the homeworld (nevermind that they were effectily in control by Ranka and Sheryl at that point) and the MF fleet lands on the island and the pretty sexd-triangle between Alto & Ranka & Sheryl...
i guess my point is, is the ending of MF an obvious or oblique example of revisionism or justifying such thoughts?
(Oh. I'm home btw. it's weird but learning to be a civilian is weird, too)...
Posted by Aban Rune (Member # 226) on :
Weirder than learning to be in the military?
Posted by Reverend (Member # 335) on :
The first step is to remember not to shout at people just because they happen to be wearing green. I've known a lot of squaddies that have trouble with that one.
Posted by PsyLiam (Member # 73) on :
St Patrick's Day must be a nightmare.
Posted by Reverend (Member # 335) on :
You're kidding right? A day that involves heavier than normal drinking and you expect squaddies to be able to distinguish a person wearing green from a litter bin with some moss on it?
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
A St Patrick's Day Veritech is yet another gag model I'll never get around to....though I imagine it to be white and green with shamrock insignia and, in robot mode, a jaunty bowler with pipe.
Maybe "Kiss me, I'm Irish!" enblazoned on the rifile's barrel.
Posted by Mars Needs Women (Member # 1505) on :
Funny we're mentioning the Irish since the President of Ireland spoke at my college graduation.
Posted by Pensive's Wetness (Member # 1203) on :
i should kick you in the nuts for saying the Ver-word, jason Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
quote:Originally posted by Mars Needs Women: Funny we're mentioning the Irish since the President of Ireland spoke at my college graduation.
Was he in a green shamrock Veritech?
Posted by Mars Needs Women (Member # 1505) on :
No, she was in some ceremonial robe. She gave a long-winded speech about the Irish, women in power, and how the User lives outside the Net and inputs games for pleasure...or something.
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
Sounds flaky. You should have thrown a rotten potato upside her head- in honor of the Great Potato Famine which claimed so many of your countrymen's lives.
Plus, it would have shut her up- a rotten potato explodes on impact into a horrible quuishy mess.
Er...so I've been told, that is. (whistles, walks away quickly)
Posted by Nim (Member # 205) on :
NK still furiously denies the sinking was done by their navy. I have just one question for those on this board with global military- and naval experience...who the hell else do they suppose would fire a torpedo at an armed south korean corvette? The Imperial Balinese Navy? Prince Namor?
Posted by Mucus (Member # 24) on :
Kind of a false dichotomy. For example, after the Gulf of Tonkin and the WMD presentation before the Iraq War, we know that a fake is a third possibility.
Not that I'm making any claims about the likelihood of that, just the logic that there are only two options.
Posted by Nim (Member # 205) on :
There are an unlimited number of options (UFO attack, giant squid), but short of the Phillipines or Japan losing a submarine to a rogue captain with an agenda, there are no credible options other than that North Korea did it. Or are there?
South Korea sinking one of their own ships and hiding away 46 sailors in a warehouse (just to start a war), it doesn't really benefit their cause, does it? If they want war, just proclaim a resumption of hostilities. I thought SK didn't want war, I assume they are not ready to take on the NK war machine, what with the US tied up elsewhere?
Posted by Mucus (Member # 24) on :
Well, that all depends on your definition of credible.
As to the rest, assuming that South Korea did it, why hide away the soldiers? They'd be a potential information leak, just have them go down with the ship. Second, there's no reason to assume that if South Korea faked it, that they *must* have faked it in order to start a war. Third, there's no reason to assume that if the situation was faked, that South Korea necessarily faked it.
(I would also add, that if we go with your "rogue submarine captain" theory, that a captain from Israel or the US sounds more likely than Japan or the Philippines since they're further from the area and have more to gain)
Posted by Nim (Member # 205) on :
quote:there's no reason to assume that if South Korea faked it, that they *must* have faked it in order to start a war.
What, then?
quote:Third, there's no reason to assume that if the situation was faked, that South Korea necessarily faked it
Who, then?
Posted by Mucus (Member # 24) on :
Well, assuming that South Korea faked it and that North Korea knows that they weren't involved. Then tensions benefit the military, the arms industry, and politicians hoping to benefit from a 9/11-like rally around the leader effect. These all function even without a war.
Assuming that the sinking was faked in general, then it could be Israel or the US (or the Philippines of Japan if we go with your example. A rogue captain from those nations should be roughly as credible as a rogue intelligence unit).
All that said, a much simpler explanation for North Korea's denials is that there is no reason for them to admit it and some for them not to.
Posted by Saltah'na (Member # 33) on :
ROFLcopter! Kim thinks i'm at work, too Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
quote:Originally posted by Mucus: Well, that all depends on your definition of credible.
As to the rest, assuming that South Korea did it, why hide away the soldiers? They'd be a potential information leak, just have them go down with the ship. Second, there's no reason to assume that if South Korea faked it, that they *must* have faked it in order to start a war. Third, there's no reason to assume that if the situation was faked, that South Korea necessarily faked it.
(I would also add, that if we go with your "rogue submarine captain" theory, that a captain from Israel or the US sounds more likely than Japan or the Philippines since they're further from the area and have more to gain)
That's the flaw with all such conspiracy theories- peple love ecrets and can never keep them- There would already be soldiers (o their families) coming forward to expose such a fake.
And really, to what motive would south Korea do this? It hurts their econemy and kills the party in power to be unable to answer the public outcry for some response.
Contrast that with al the reasons the North has for doing this- they might be looking for an excus to withdraw from the world stage for a time to consolodate their hierarchy- It seems Kim's brother just got a big promotion into a military job and Kim's eldest son is kinda a slacker, so they need some time to get their shit together. That's the word bn the street, anyway. Posted by Nim (Member # 205) on :
Aha, the plot fickens.
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
The game is afoot.
Posted by Mars Needs Women (Member # 1505) on :
What a twit!
Posted by Pensive's Wetness (Member # 1203) on :
Where's the beef? o.O
Posted by Nim (Member # 205) on :
Looks like the cows have come home to roost.
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
Well this has been throughly disapointing- a fizzle instead of a forest fire.
Maybe they're waiting for that lousy BP oil spill to quit hogging all the headlines...
Posted by Nim (Member # 205) on :
quote:North Korea said it is examining what "additional" steps it will take against Aijalon Mahli Gomes, an American man who has been sentenced to eight years hard labor for illegally entering North Korea. He was arrested after crossing the North Korea-China border on January 25.
"The U.S. government is requesting the DPRK to leniently set him free from a humanitarian stand, but such thing can never happen under the prevailing situation and there remains only the issue of what harsher punishment will be meted out to him.
If the U.S. persists in its hostile approach toward the DPRK, the latter will naturally be compelled to consider the issue of applying a wartime law to him," the new agency reported.
Posted by Mark Nguyen (Member # 469) on :
"The Korean War - is THAT thing still going on?"
I actually heard a guy on the street say this before he realized how dumb it sounded.
Mark
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
You should have fucked with his head- you could have said there was an Bin Laden is in North Korea and we're planning an invasion.
Posted by Pensive's Wetness (Member # 1203) on :
...jesus i though that boat was a covette... it looked as big as a FFG. and that torp cut it in half? o.O
Posted by Nim (Member # 205) on :
Here are some recent, depressing insights from CIA director Leon Panetta:
quote:Regarding another nuclear "rogue" state -- North Korea -- Panetta said the question of who will succeed leader Kim Jong Il is likely behind recent military acts such as the alleged sinking of a South Korean navy ship. "I think that could have been part of it, in order to establish credibility for his son," Panetta said of a likely successor, adding: "His son is very young. His son is very untested. His son is loyal to his father and to North Korea, but his son does not have the kind of credibility with the military, because nobody really knows what he's going to be like."
However, Panetta said he doubted there would be further escalation, noting that "in the end, they always back away from the brink, and I think they'll do that now."
I don't mean that avoiding a war with potentially horrendous collateral damage is depressing, but if things are like Panetta says, NK is criminally cynical. Blowing up a ship with a hundred men onboard, just to groom your heir in the eyes of his peers (counting on never being held accountable for it), that's pretty damn nasty. That's something out of the first 15 minutes of a Bond movie, pardon the black/white analogy.
Posted by Pensive's Wetness (Member # 1203) on :
quote:Originally posted by Nim: Here are some recent, depressing insights from CIA director Leon Panetta:
quote:Regarding another nuclear "rogue" state -- North Korea -- Panetta said the question of who will succeed leader Kim Jong Il is likely behind recent military acts such as the alleged sinking of a South Korean navy ship. "I think that could have been part of it, in order to establish credibility for his son," Panetta said of a likely successor, adding: "His son is very young. His son is very untested. His son is loyal to his father and to North Korea, but his son does not have the kind of credibility with the military, because nobody really knows what he's going to be like."
However, Panetta said he doubted there would be further escalation, noting that "in the end, they always back away from the brink, and I think they'll do that now."
I don't mean that avoiding a war with potentially horrendous collateral damage is depressing, but if things are like Panetta says, NK is criminally cynical. Blowing up a ship with a hundred men onboard, just to groom your heir in the eyes of his peers (counting on never being held accountable for it), that's pretty damn nasty. That's something out of the first 15 minutes of a Bond movie, pardon the black/white analogy.
Tell that to the 40-odd souls who didn't return home. Only thing saving them from invasion is the fact we're busy elsewhere in the world... Ok, South Korea's leader has be eating a really fucking huge chunk of ROLLAIDS right now because what they have to stomach... BUT, assume that the Nkorean migdet-fisting sub doesn't get the warbook right & they shoot a torp at a US vessel... and Hit...
no choice. We'll tell China that they can help, we won't use NBC weaps, but we'll fucking bomb the shit out of them...
O.o
Posted by PsyLiam (Member # 73) on :
quote:Originally posted by Pensive's Wetness: Only thing saving them from invasion is the fact we're busy elsewhere in the world...
Really? If it wasn't for Iraq and Afghanistan the US would have invaded North Korea? What stopped you before?
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
Well there was that wildly unpopular first Korean War- there's that to consider.
And the fact that no one would back us up on it- not even Japan. Certainly China (holders of massive US debt) would be against it and would use it's UN influence to stop any support there because they really really dont want a million or so North Korean refugees streaming across the border into China.
And lastly, there's the impossible cost of integrating the two Koreas during this global recession.
Sadly, the least problamatic thing would be the NK military itself- the greatest theat there is Seol getting shelled -and that would be a terrible thing, but it would not last long after combat started: those fixed emplacments would be the first things to go.
There's all kinds of shit preventing open warfare- even if Iraq and Afghanistan suddenly became New Canada and New Puerto Rico. Posted by Mars Needs Women (Member # 1505) on :
No, they'll be merged into NewPalinLand.
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
She can see it from her house!
Posted by Pensive's Wetness (Member # 1203) on :
quote:Originally posted by Jason Abbadon: She can see it from her house!
ok, ok Point taken. but really. just wtf would we do, if the NK tries to sink another ship? Hells, would we ask China to take of NK?
you can only suck up so much angry inside...
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
We'd do nothing- nothing at all. It's not like we're under and obkigation to defend...er..
Yeah.
If NK were to begin open naval warfare things would be a lot diffrent- then military hostilities would be likely, but this cowardly attack which they are going to great pains to deny is tough to respond to- how can they use military force without escalating things?
But that's a looong way from today's situation- today is back to the cold war standoff.
Personally, I blame Liam. Somehow this is all his fault.
Posted by Nim (Member # 205) on :
As if all this wasn't enough, the North Koreans are also into bunnynapping. Give the germans their bunnies back!
If there ever is an allied "surge" into NK, a squad of GSG 9 troopers will HALO into the Pyonyang petting zoo with wicker baskets and warm blankets.
Posted by PsyLiam (Member # 73) on :
I am so annoyed I missed the Reach beta. I had an invite and everything!
What are we talking about?
Posted by Pensive's Wetness (Member # 1203) on :
quote:Originally posted by PsyLiam: I am so annoyed I missed the Reach beta. I had an invite and everything!
What are we talking about? OH! That's right. Halflings. Cute, lovable halflings. Hav you given all your loot to your halfling, today? o.O
O.o
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
quote:Originally posted by Nim: As if all this wasn't enough, the North Koreans are also into bunnynapping. Give the germans their bunnies back!
If there ever is an allied "surge" into NK, a squad of GSG 9 troopers will HALO into the Pyonyang petting zoo with wicker baskets and warm blankets.
Call it "Operation Stewpot".
Posted by Da_bang80 (Member # 528) on :
That's a big bunny...
Posted by Mars Needs Women (Member # 1505) on :
quote:Originally posted by PsyLiam: I am so annoyed I missed the Reach beta. I had an invite and everything!
What are we talking about?
Don't feel too bad, I missed the Star Trek Online Beta, and I was invited as well.
![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)
![[Wink]](wink.gif)
![[Razz]](tongue.gif)