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[QUOTE]Originally posted by DT: [QB] I'll tackle the Pearl Harbor question to start. There is no doubt in my mind that Franklin Delano Roosevelt knew the attack was coming. Firstly, let me contradict Baloo as to naval tactics. What you are saying my have been correct amongst black shoed commanders, it was not amongst the brown shoes. There was a large contingent at the time which believed, correctly, that the carriers were going to win the war, not the battleship. The sinking of the Prince of Wales a few months before simply strengthened their resolve. It is my belief that FDR knew this. That's why he let the battleships, which at the time were considered more important by the population at large, to be destroyed. This led them to believe we were horribly hit. However, FDR knew that we still had what mattered, the carriers. Keep in mind, FDR was a "formal naval person" himself. Moreover, Kimmel's belief was to keep two task forces at sea at all times, but this was impossible due to a fuel shortage. Incidentally, we knew Pearl Harbor was likely to be hit. In 1941 (May 12, day before my b-day) we held war games there based on this scenario, likewise in 1933 and 1939. Incidentally, the 1939 attack succeeded! Why? It was a surprise attack on a Sunday morning. In the summer of 1940, the US broke the Japanese J codes. By monitoring these, they knew that Tokyo was interested in the position and movement of the US fleet in Hawaii. The J codes were changed in early December of 1941. On January 24, Secretary of the Navy Frank Knox sent a letter to Sec of War Stimson saying that "if war eventuates with JApan, it is believed easily possible that hostilities would be initiated by a surprise attack upon the fleet or the naval base at Pearl Harbor." On February 1, Admiral Kimmel recieved a report from the Office of Naval Intelligence paraphrasing the reports made in January by the US Ambassador to Japan Joseph C. Grew. The comments read "My Peruvian colleague told a member of my staff that he heard that Japanese military forces planned to attempt a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor." On February 11, Admiral Kimmel, CinC US Fleet in Hawaii issued a letter to his command which said, in part, "a declaration of war might be preceded by a surprise attack on ships in Pearl Harbor, a surprise submarine attack on ships in operating area, or a combination of these two." On February 18, Admiral Kimmel commented in latter to Admiral Stark "I feel that a surprise attack on Pearl Harbor is a possibility." On February 25, General Marshall (US Army Chief of Staff for those who don't know) told his staff that he was worried with the security of the fleet in Hawaii, particularly from a surprise attack. On June 13, Admiral Kimmel, CINCUS, said in a meeting in Washington, attended by Secretary Knox, that Pearl Harbor invited an attack, and the only answer was for the ships not to be there when it came. On September 10, Lt General Short pleaded with the War Department for bombproof aircraft prepair facilities at Oahu, which he claimed would be needed for the attack. On September 20, General Martin, commander of the Hawaiian Air Force, suggested drills to train against a potention Jap carrier-based air attack. This was denied. On November 27, the US forces in the Pacific recieved a war warning from Washington, which said in part, "an aggressive move by Japan is expected within the next few days." In early December, General Hap Arnold, commander of the airforce, told crews flying to the Phillipines to deliver B-17s that "War is imminent. You may run into a war during your flight." They had a scheduled stop at Hickam Field... Oahu, December 7. In early December, Brig General Thorpe, US military observer in Java, sent Washington four messages based on information he recieved from General Hein Ter Poorten, commander of the Netherlands East Indies Army. The latter's intelligence staff had intercepted a Japanese code which stated that Japan would attack Hawaii, the Philippines, Malaya, and Thailand shortly. Most telling is what he told the General the signal for hostilities against the US would be: east wind, rain. (for those unfamiliar with this part of the war, that WAS the signal given) Washington's response? "Please do not send further information on this subject" On December 2,the 12th Naval District Intelligence Office detected radio signals in the Pacific which they thought could be from the missing Japanese fleet. On December 6, they established their position to be about 400 miles north of Oahu. On December 5, the destroyers USS Selfridge (DD-357) and USS Ralph Talbot (DD-390) made underwater contact with what the Talbot commander reported as a submarine about five miles off Pearl Harbor. He requested but was DENIED permission to depth charge with the explanation that it was not a sub but a blackfish. "If this is a blackfish, it has a motorboat up its stern!" he reportedly responded. That same night Admiral William F. Halsey's task force was advised that a submarine had been reported on December 4 just south of Hawaii. On December 6, Ensign Fred Hall, assistant communications officer about the USS Vestal, commented to other officers that "They will attack right here." At 7:55 the next morning, Hall would be the officer of the deck and pull the general quarters signal. On December 6, Franklin D. Roosevelt read the 13 part message Tokyo had sent to its Ambassadors in Washington and commented "this means war." The message, then decoded, would officially be delivered on the 7th... with a 14th part (the official declaration). On December 6, Captain Johan Ranneft, the Dutch naval attache in Washington, was told that two Japanese aircraft carriers were proceeding east between Japan and Hawaii. While at the Office of US Naval Intelligence he asked where the carriers were. An officer placed a finger on a wall chart and indicated a position between 300 and 400 miles NW of Honolulu. On December 7, at 6:45 AM the USS War (DD-139) depth-charged and sank a Jananese submarine. A second was sunk by a Catalina flying boat 15 minutes later. This harkens back to a comment Kimmel made in February when he commented that a single submarine attack may indicate the presence of a considerable surface force, accompanied by a carrier. That morning in Washington, General Marshall declined to send a message to Oahu via the US Navy's rapid transmission system, like Admiral Stark had offered. He sent it Western Union instead. The message? That at 1 PM EST the Japanese were going to present an ultimatum, and Washington believed that further significance was involved to this hour. The arrival time of the message? Well after 1 PM EST. The Jap fleet had left port in late November. By then we were almost certain an attack was coming to Hawaii, which meant Pearl Harbor would be hit. We suspected how it would be done. We had a good idea where their fleet was. We even know on Dec 7 they would break contact with us. Now, I'm not going to say this was part of some huge conspiracy by FDR. However, any good commander in chief (be it the Prez or Kimmel) would keep his most important ships out of port when the attack likely would come. I also suggest everyone here read the Bellinger report, good reading. I'll tackle the other WWII stuff in a few minutes. I'm tired now. [/QB][/QUOTE]
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