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Posted by Obese Penguin (Member # 271) on :
 
My brother and I were looking at an atlas today after Pakistan announced that it backed the US.

We started talking about the odds that the US would use Pakistan as it used Saudi Arabia during Desert Storm , as a staging area for its mobilization seeing as Pakistan borders Afghanistan.

Now we began arguing the logistics of this and possible problems the military would face.

My first fear is the chance of terrorist attack on our soldiers as they prepare. After all Pakistan isnt exactly safe ground.

Now lets say Pakistan is left alone and the US conducts Airborne drops , they still have no way to make land based supply lines or even a seaborne beach head.

Even the Air ways to Afghanistan are in question because you either have to fly over China or Iran if you take off from our bases in the pacific and Saudi Arabia.

Any military action will face huge problems , after all these Afghans were trained by the CIA to use Stinger Missiles and other equipment.

The road ahead is going to rough , thats all I have to say.
 


Posted by Sol System (Member # 30) on :
 
Should it come to that, Russia has not so subtly hinted that they are more than willing to support such an operation.
 
Posted by MeGotBeer (Member # 411) on :
 
Imagine, twelve years ago, if someone had suggested that Russia would help assist the United States in what has the potential to be the largest modern military mobilization.
 
Posted by Obese Penguin (Member # 271) on :
 
History has never been void of irony.
 
Posted by USS Vanguard (Member # 130) on :
 
Afghanistan is pissing in their pants. They don't want to be attacked and have released a statement that pretty much pleads for mercy. Something along the lines of they're soo bad off anyhows, and the last thing they need is a thrashing by a modern military that may or MAY NOT end the terrorist threat. Its on www.nytimes.com somewhere.
 
Posted by TSN (Member # 31) on :
 
I seem to recall reading that the Taliban asked us not to attack because, if we weaken them, the previous government might be able to take back over, like they've been trying to do.

This doesn't make sense to me. The US only recognizes the previous government. We want them to defeat the Taliban. Isn't this all the more incentive for us to attack?
 


Posted by Omega (Member # 91) on :
 
Hmm... wouldn't that mean that we could see the TALIBAN as a terrorist group...? Yeah, pleas for mercy is right.
 
Posted by Vogon Poet (Member # 393) on :
 
Well, Pakistan owes the States a lot, and they're pissed off with Afghanistan anyway, and horrified over these atrocities. But blood is thicker than water, and likely they'll balk at allowing their territory to be used as a staging area for the invasion of another Islamic nation by infidels.

Which basically leaves an invasion from Russia. Which means you'll run into all the problems the Russians did - Kabul is a long way away, far closer to the Pakistani border in fact. . .
 


Posted by Obese Penguin (Member # 271) on :
 
I'm sure those military planners over at the Pentagon are already crunching numbers and reading up on the Soviet experiance in Afghanistan.
 
Posted by The_Tom (Member # 38) on :
 
Couple of newish points

  • Pakistan's government is walking a tightrope and a half. Although the government thus far seems to be firmly on-side with the West, there is a very powerful and influential fundamentalist Islamic voice in government that strongly opposes cooperation w/US against the Taliban. Should an attack on Afghanistan be launched from there, there is a substantial risk that Pakistan could collapse into civil war. Not good.

  • The Taliban say that if Afghanistan is attacked they will exact their own revenge on the West. Hamas has already declared that it, too, will consider a Western attack on the Taliban as an attack on all true followers of Allah. Fuck.

  • Russia has said that while it will share intelligence with the West, it isn't quite open to having NATO units crossing through the airspace/travelling along the ground of any states of the CIS. But there have already been very concrete steps for military intervention along the northern Afghani border launched by an alliance of Russia and the Islamic states of the former USSR in support of Massood's Northern Alliance.

  • Speaking of Massood, there're conflicting reports at the moment on his fate. (He was suicide-bombed by the Taliban last week) His doctors say he's lapsed into a coma for the third time, while the French foreign minister says he's succumbed to his injuries.
     
    Posted by IDIC (Member # 256) on :
     
    quote:
    Hamas has already declared that it, too, will consider a Western attack on the Taliban as an attack on all true followers of Allah.

    Well now, that rather goes against everything Hamas has stated so far. Specifically, the bits about 'wishing not to get involved', and 'never having even considered an attack on any NATO-member state'. But then, Hamas is itself a collection of fundie-filth, so any war on terrorism would likely involve that miserable organisation anyway.
     


    Posted by Shik (Member # 343) on :
     
    quote:
    Originally posted by IDIC:

    But then, Hamas is itself a collection of fundie-filth, so any war on terrorism would likely involve that miserable organisation anyway.


    This from a man who calls himself "IDIC."

    "IRONY...far out..." --Steven Hyde
     


    Posted by IDIC (Member # 256) on :
     
    I'm quite sure that 'ID' wasn't meant to include extremist fundamentalism.
     
    Posted by Shik (Member # 343) on :
     
    :::giggles uncontrollably::: What about the IC?
     
    Posted by The_Tom (Member # 38) on :
     
    from Reuters
    quote:

    Hamas backs Taliban call for Muslim unity

    A senior official of the Islamist militant group Hamas, echoing calls by Taliban clerics in Afghanistan, urged Muslims to unite against any US retaliation for the terror attacks in New York and Washington.

    In Cairo, the spokesman of Egypt's largest Muslim fundamentalist group, the Muslim Brotherhood, defended the Taliban's threat of revenge for any US action against Afghanistan and urged Washington to show restraint.

    "I join the cause for Muslims to be united in order to deter the United States from launching war against Muslims in Afghanistan, the Hamas official, Abdel-Aziz al-Rantissi," said in response to the calls by clerics in Kabul.

    "It is impossible for Muslims to stand handcuffed and blindfolded while other Muslims, their brothers, are being attacked. The Muslim world should stand up against the American threats which are fed by the Jews," Rantissi said.

    Taliban clerics used today’s prayers to urge Muslims around the world to unite against the United States if it attacked Afghanistan, and threatened revenge by other means in the event of such attacks.

    Hamas has carried out a series of suicide attacks in Israel during the nearly year-old Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation, killing scores of Israelis.

    The Palestinian Authority, led by President Yasser Arafat, had no comment on the Taliban's call for Muslim unity.



     
    Posted by First of Two (Member # 16) on :
     
    Well, since I've calmed down a little and am no longer in favor of the 'wholesale' destruction of entire cities, I say our message should go something like this:

    "The United States has no desire to wage war on the people of Afghanistan, nor on any Muslim nation.

    All we want are the terrorists responsible.

    If you give them to us, we will go away and leave you in peace.

    If you do not, we will come and take them.

    Those of you who stand aside will be left alone.

    Those of you who stand in our way will die.

    We will not attack anyone who has not attacked us, but anyone who does attack us will be utterly and mercilessly destroyed.

    Decide now."

    Personally, I don't know if Hamas is stupid or suicidal enough to want to take on both us AND the Israelis, since if we had left the Israelis to their own devices instead of asking for restraint they might have killed them all by now. But if they are... we go to the Israelis: "Here's all the weapons you need, all the money you need, all the tech you need. Have a party."

    I remember tales from my youth about corporations fielding their own private mercenary armies in places like South America... I wonder if some of those companies that were hurt by the WTC bombings might not feel like pooling some funds to get their own justice... can't you just see some big corp buying some 'surplus' Soviet hardware and using it with their own hired guns? (The Third Wal-Mart Air Wing drops an old Russian A-bomb?)
     


    Posted by Da_bang80 (Member # 528) on :
     
    Them's fightin words. I agree with your statement. the world is too pansey-wansey, and weak. if people wanna help the terrorists, then they ARE terrorists. and for that they deserve to get the crap beaten out of them. they knew the risks when they decided to harbour them. we're doing a unit on nationalism and romantism in history class. and this is a perfect example of religious nationalism and romantism. bin laden and his fellow terrorists are fighting what they percieve as an injustice towards thier respective countries. and they seem to find something romantic about being an outlaw, and a criminal.
     
    Posted by The_Tom (Member # 38) on :
     
    Except they don't see themselves as criminals. Brave-little-guys-going-against-the-flow, perhaps. So I guess one could link their frame of mind to that of romantic revolutionaries.

    Except, to my knowledge, Percy Shelley never killed 5000 people in cold blood.


    Anyway, the plot continues to thicken. The Taliban are getting downright nasty, and it looks like they're directing their comments at Pakistan and Tajikistan:

    quote:
    Taliban Say May Attack Neighbors Helping U.S. Strike

    ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Afghanistan's ruling Taliban said on Saturday they might attack any neighbor which gave assistance to U.S. strikes on their country, the Afghan Islamic Press reported.

    "If a neighboring country allows its soil or its air to be used in an attack against Afghanistan...in that case the possibility cannot be ruled out that we attack that country," the Foreign Ministry said in a statement issued in Kabul.

    "We'll be forced to send our mujahideen into their territory...they will be responsible for the consequences."


    This is a whole new can of worms. As I mentioned above, the situation in Pakistan is especially volatile, given the fact that there is a very strong faction that strongly endorses the Taliban and is very anti-West. Might we see a situation similar to Vietnam, with Taliban mujahedeen serving as Viet Cong, crossing into Pakistan, gaining support from fundamentalist Pakistanis and leading an attack on their government?

    Although my knowledge of Tajikistan is a bit sketchier, they have recently wrapped up a civil war there, again between a moderate government and a fundamentalist rebel group. Tajikistan's governent has been firmly behind the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan and so is probably quite likely to make itself one of the "enemies" of the Taliban. So I imagine they're facing a similar situation to the one I envisioned for Pakistan.

    At a guess, airstrikes will be launched from India and from carriers in the Arabian Sea, with Pakistan providing flyover rights (actually landing planes there might be too risky, and could further undermine civilian support for the Pakistani government.) India has already volunteered the airbases, anyway. Can the area be reached from West-friendly bases in Qatar or Saudi Arabia, out of curiosity? The Russians and their CIS allies will continue pushing on the Tajikistan - Northern Alliance corridor, although exactly what sort of response theirs will be is a bit uncertain. I can't see Russian tanks rolling into Afghanistan after the first American missiles hit.

    India's involvement also raises the ugly prospect of Kashmir becoming part of the conflict, especially if there is an armed and militarized fundamentalist army in Pakistan. Remember, when these two get pissed at one another, the nuclear clock's hand gets moved.

    The final question mark is Iran. Where do they fit in? Iran is faced with the reality of hating the US and the Taliban roughly equally. They've already made perhaps the most pro-US gesture since the revolution in condemning the attacks. Might there be a silver lining from this tragedy that could bring Iran out of its shell and into the global community?
     


    Posted by The_Tom (Member # 38) on :
     
    Some quick updates on the regional political situation before I go to bed...

    quote:

    Afghan Anti-Taliban Leader Masood Dead-Spokesman

    KABUL (Reuters) - The legendary anti-Taliban guerrilla leader Ahmad Shah Masood died in an Afghan hospital from wounds suffered in a suicide bomb attack this week by two Arabs, a spokesman said on Saturday.

    "Yes, he sadly passed away last night and preparations for his burial will be made at some stage today," Engineer Baryalay, a spokesman for the opposition, said by satellite telephone from the opposition capital, Faizabad.

    Masood was the main military obstacle to the Taliban goal of rule over all of Afghanistan and his fate had been unclear ever since the announcement on Sunday that he had been the object of an assassination attempt by two Arabs posing as journalists.


    Additionally, Bush and Powell, in perhaps their most intelligent foreign policy decision since attaining office, are actively lobbying Israel to declare a truce with the Palestineans so an anti-terrorist coalition consisting of the West, Israel, and Arab states can be formed. Sharon's being a bitch, but that's to be expected. Perez seems determined to still talk peace with Arafat, though. Good on him.
     


    Posted by USS Vanguard (Member # 130) on :
     
    Well there's also Uzbekistan, which is pretty prosperous in comparison to other former Soviet Republics. However, it also has a small, but apparently vocal fundamentalist sect. The problem with any of these neighboring countries seems to be a) they don't want their own fundamentalist dudes rising up and fighting a war, and b) they don't want afghanistan to attack them, if indeed they are able to attack much of anything.

    I think Jimmy Carter would laugh his ass off if Iran lent help. Then of course be carted off to the crazies institute.
     


    Posted by BlueElectron (Member # 281) on :
     
    I think this topic is rather complicated.

    But I think if US gonna do this half assed like so many other "limited" warfares that the Americans were involved with in the past, then they're gonna pay big, maybe even losing the war. The only way for the US to win this war is to do this with full effort, totally annihilate their enemy and throw away the stinking rule of "zero casuality".

    And let us not forget what happen to the States in Vietnam, Korea and several special missions where they were over confident. After all, Afganistan will prove to be a worth enemy because they're battle hardened, well trained garrila combat soldiers who are more then happy to die for their religious believes, and their track record with the "almighty' USSR just prove more to this point.

    [ September 16, 2001: Message edited by: BlueElectron ]


     
    Posted by Malnurtured Snay (Member # 411) on :
     
    quote:
    After all, Afganistan will prove to be a worth enemy because they're battle hardened, well trained garrila combat soldiers who are more then happy to die for their religious believes, and their track record with the "almighty' USSR just prove more to this point.

    Which is why, if we learn that Bin Laden is responsible (remember: he's just the prime suspect now) and we decide to go after Afghanistan's Taliban government, our goal will not be too occupy the country, but simply to get in, destroy the Taliban, either kill or capture as many terrorists as possible, and probably as much of their military infastructure as possible. Then get the hell out.

    I can't speak for the Northern Alliance, but it seems to me that they wouldn't mind the U.S. of A. coming in and giving them a really big helping hand in overthrowing the Taliban. I for one really appreciated them attacking Kabul Tuesday night.

    [ September 16, 2001: Message edited by: Malnurtured Snay ]


     
    Posted by Harry (Member # 265) on :
     
    Nasty shit...
    Please think long and hard before you act too impulsively, world leaders.

    Afghanistan has been given a three-day ultimatum to hand over Laden. Pakistan and some other country are now talking with the Taleban..

    See you in four days..
     


    Posted by David Templar (Member # 580) on :
     
    I don't think the US would actually be staging another Desert Shield/Desert Storm thing out of Pakistan, the area's not exactly friendly, secure, etc. Besides, I think the US will be using mostly hit and grab operations with special forces for this thing, rather than regular troops. Afghanistan isn't somewhere where you want to based ANY troops longer than a few days, just ask the Russkies.

    If they want to destroy the Taliban, they can do that from the air. The question is whether or not the Pakistanies can give US over flight permission without getting themselves into trouble. Maybe they can turn their radar off and look the other way every night...

    [ September 16, 2001: Message edited by: David Templar ]


     
    Posted by Sol System (Member # 30) on :
     
    I don't think you can remove the Taliban from power from the air. Destroy their infrastructure, maybe. But they've spent the past five or six years destroying Afghanistan's infrastructure on their own.
     


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