Space scientists are eyeing an incoming asteroid as the first candidate for a course deflection mission - using a satellite's gravity to gently nudge a rock away from a collision with our planet. The asteroid has a one in thousands chance of hitting in the first place (in 2036), but it's close enough and relevant enough for the eggheads to start campaigning for a spacecraft to try moving it out of the way. The technique recommended is the recently-devised "Gravity Tractor" technique: they'll sling a craft into an eliptical orbit around the rock, whose gravity deflection will slowly but surely move the asteroid's course until we're out of danger.
Mark
Posted by MinutiaeMan (Member # 444) on :
I think a better topic title would've been "KNEEL BEFORE APOPHIS!"
For those that forget, this is the same asteroid that everyone was wetting their pants over about two years ago, when preliminary calculations estimated only a 1/85 (no trailing zeroes) chance of it hitting the planet in 2029, which was not good. Now, they're fairly sure it'll miss the planet in 2029 (though it'll be really, really close), but the close encounter with the Earth's mass could change its orbit to make an actual impact more likely in 2036.
I'm impressed by the simplicity of this concept, the gravity tractor. Everyone always talks about using nukes and lasers and other crap that we really don't have, and aren't likely to have. A simple, massive satellite to nudge the asteroid out of the way is a beautiful plan, because when you're literally talking astronomical distances like these, just a tiny fraction of a degree of movement is enough to make it miss the planet entirely. And the fact that they're figuring only twelve days would be necessary to alter the trajectory is damn cool.
The only question is, what's the potential for a project like this making the situation worse? If the calculations aren't precise, it's possible that they could turn a near-miss into an impact instead.
Posted by Mark Nguyen (Member # 469) on :
Hadn't thought of that. Mind you, the Goa'uld DID once try to smash an asteroid into the Earth. Good thing everyone had seen "Armaggedon", so they'd know what to do.
My thoughts are that they send a SCIENTIFIC probe up there to do the dual job of saving the planet and studying an asteroid, thus justifying the $300M+ price tag. It doesn't have to be super-heavy, either... It's all about trajectories and time. After the twelve day course alteration is confirmed, they could normalize the orbit into something that won't send it careening into anything, then start up a scientific mission to examine and explore the place.
Mark
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
Hmmm...the rock coming our way will be a huge momoent in scientific study- drop a lander on the surface, equiped with all sorts of sensors and cameras, let the rock go by (or get moved away with a bit of help from a tractor-satelite) and see where the old rock goes...assuming they land of the side away from earth, and assuming little or no tumble, it could be a fantastic platform for space images and a geologists fantasy.
Or re-direct it to Mars and watch some planetary destruction the like of which we've neber seen! Nothing says "you've arrived" like destroying your neighboring planet.
Posted by Cartman (Member # 256) on :
That's "pull away", not "nudge away". Unless of course negative nudges are allowed now, but we don't really want that, do we? DO WE?
Posted by Da_bang80 (Member # 528) on :
I mentioned this in another forum a while back, and some little idiot tried to use high school physics to prove me wrong. Needless to say, I laughed, then owned him with his own physics.
Posted by B.J. (Member # 858) on :
quote:Originally posted by MinutiaeMan: I'm impressed by the simplicity of this concept, the gravity tractor. Everyone always talks about using nukes and lasers and other crap that we really don't have, and aren't likely to have. A simple, massive satellite to nudge the asteroid out of the way is a beautiful plan, because when you're literally talking astronomical distances like these, just a tiny fraction of a degree of movement is enough to make it miss the planet entirely. And the fact that they're figuring only twelve days would be necessary to alter the trajectory is damn cool.
Very true, and I also like the simplicity. However, when people start talking about nukes and lasers, most likely they're referring to the stray rock we missed and is going to destroy the Earth two days from now. This gravity tractor won't work well enough for a short lead time like that.
Posted by Pleiades10 (Member # 1958) on :
I also like the idea of making a cut into the asteroid and using the gas trapped inside it, to essentially 'jet' it away from Earth under its own power, literally. This idea is the most plausible though that I have seen.
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
Assuming that we know there's gas trapped inside it and can really cut that far into it, and that there's enough gas to make a serious course change (not just spin it around).
I wonder what a large detonation(s) near the asteroid's trajectory would achieve (nuclear toys again, I know and I know there'd be protests sending a nuke up on a rocket)? Most military ICBM's are designed to send multiple warheads to very precise coordinates- they could be staggered to explode at several points on the asteroid's trajectory- providing several shockwave "nudges" instead of one large all-or-nothing blast....or possibly several tries at destroying the asteroid, instead of placing all our eggs in one missile.
All depending on the size, speed, tumble, shape and composition of the asteroid, of course. probably a hundred other factors too
Posted by MinutiaeMan (Member # 444) on :
Didn't you ever play "Outpost," Jason? All a nuke would do is fracture the asteroid into three pieces and make the whole thing worse! Posted by Da_bang80 (Member # 528) on :
quote:Originally posted by MinutiaeMan: Didn't you ever play "Outpost," Jason? All a nuke would do is fracture the asteroid into three pieces and make the whole thing worse!
Outpost being that really old Win 3.1 game? That game was so hard! I'd get a decent little city going and it would just die for no apparent reason. I had no idea what I was doing wrong. Then again, I was 7 at the time...
Posted by Cartman (Member # 256) on :
quote:Originally posted by Jason Abbadon: I wonder what a large detonation(s) near the asteroid's trajectory would achieve (nuclear toys again, I know and I know there'd be protests sending a nuke up on a rocket)? Most military ICBM's are designed to send multiple warheads to very precise coordinates- they could be staggered to explode at several points on the asteroid's trajectory- providing several shockwave "nudges" instead of one large all-or-nothing blast....or possibly several tries at destroying the asteroid, instead of placing all our eggs in one missile.
Slight problem with that: there's no atmosphere to produce any shockwaves in.
Posted by Pleiades10 (Member # 1958) on :
Yeah, you'd be relying on the fragmentation to push it, wouldn't you? Unless there was a highly compressed force in the explosive, in which case could it work?
Posted by Nim (Member # 205) on :
Mark said:
quote:Hadn't thought of that. Mind you, the Goa'uld DID once try to smash an asteroid into the Earth.
My god, you're right. And before them, the Arachnids! And they succeeded, too. As far as I'm concerned, Buenos Aires is wiped off the map. It was like 9/11 times a thousand.
Posted by Shik (Member # 343) on :
Bugs. Not Arachnids, bugs.
Posted by Da_bang80 (Member # 528) on :
quote:Originally posted by Nim: Mark said:
quote:Hadn't thought of that. Mind you, the Goa'uld DID once try to smash an asteroid into the Earth.
My god, you're right. And before them, the Arachnids! And they succeeded, too. As far as I'm concerned, Buenos Aires is wiped off the map. It was like 9/11 times a thousand.
J/K Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
quote:Originally posted by Cartman: [QUOTE]Slight problem with that: there's no atmosphere to produce any shockwaves in.
"Shockwave" may be incorrect terminology, but the energy from a detonation shoud be spherical and should have an effect on a nearby body (like said asteroid). The notion is not to blow it up, just to re-direct it slightly.
Remember, a course change of only 1 degree is probably more than we'd need if we intercepted a rock as far away as the one NEAR encountered.
Posted by Cartman (Member # 256) on :
You cannot really move a rock with EM or neutron radiation alone, is the point.
(I guess if the detonation was close enough some of it would be vaporized, changing the dynamics somewhat, but... meh.)
Posted by B.J. (Member # 858) on :
So in this case, a larger (in mass) conventional bomb would be better than a small nuke?
Posted by Mars Needs Women (Member # 1505) on :
I remember on the Daily Show, some scientist saying that if the asteroid were painted white, solar rays reflecting off the asteroid's surface would push it out of the way. Of course, I don't know of any way to paint an asteroid in space.
Also "Outpost" had many bugs, one of which had the colony's population dying in droves for no reason.
Posted by MinutiaeMan (Member # 444) on :
Yeah, Outpost was an awesome game in concept, that turned out to be really crappy. I still had some fun with it sometimes, though.
Posted by Daniel Butler (Member # 1689) on :
Speaking of the Bugs, someone tell me why the hell that movie was never force-fed to its writer? ...I guess I did like it...I just...shouldn't have.
Posted by Da_bang80 (Member # 528) on :
The one chick had nice bodongadongs.
Posted by Nim (Member # 205) on :
Butler: Because it delivered. It had action and sci-fi and classic Verhoevian political satire, and really good visuals. The poster pretty much said it all. It's not Tarkovsky.
Speaking of Outpost (if we're going off-topic), "Spore" is something I'm looking out for. It's alluring to be able to shape the player creature yourself. I'm thinking about going for a bipedal triclops or some kind of arachnid. With poisonous ink sacs, if it's allowed.
Speaking of Tarkovsky, is anyone else looking forward to "Stalker"? I bought the movie for my brother's birthday last year and we're both curious about the game.
Posted by Mars Needs Women (Member # 1505) on :
That phaser from the front of the secondry hull is tough to swallow (and swallowing phasers is my hobby).
Posted by The Ginger Beacon (Member # 1585) on :
You mean the orange thing? Isn't it the Es deflector beam?
Posted by Mars Needs Women (Member # 1505) on :
Yeah it's a deflector beam.
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
Still...it's pretty weird. ..not as weird as SHatner's performance this episode, but still very odd.
Posted by Mars Needs Women (Member # 1505) on :
I am Kirok!
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
The part where he's rolling back and forth while being "stoned" by what looks to be rolled up grey socks is the really weird part. The 1960's practice of useing orange painted white people to represent native americans does not help any either.
Personally, I much prefer the original blue deflector beam over the thin red new version- great update on the asteroid though.
Y'know, if the Preservers were so advanced, why not just destroy all the threatening asterpods in the system? Maybe the obilsik has some secondary function? Planetary defense prahaps? Some kind of "we were here" marker?
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