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Posted by Hobbes (Member # 138) on :

I don't understand why in TNG it's implied there aren't many ships in Starfleet compared to DS9. Before you say, "they're CGI's Hobbes"... I mean 39 ships are lost and it's considered a huge loss. Then comes "Redemption" where it seems that there aren't enough ships for Picard's tachycon grid, plus some of his senior officers end of commanding some of the ships because there aren't enough captains?!

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Posted by Aethelwer (Member # 36) on :

Well, the loss of 39 ships is significant, even if Starfleet has 3900 ships of that size. In addition, 39 ships equals somewhere around 10,000 officers and crew.

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Posted by Hobbes (Member # 138) on :

What I meant was that if Starfleet has possibly thousands of starships, before the Dominion war, the loss of just 39 ships isn't that much in comparsion. Futhermore why did there appear to be a shortage of ships and captains in "Redemption"?

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Posted by Aethelwer (Member # 36) on :

Probably because they were near the border, where there would probably be fewer ships.

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Posted by Dat (Member # 302) on :

I'm not sure how this fits in, but it's possible that most of the ships in DS9 were probably recommissioned for the sole purpose of fighting. The war lasted two years plus there was a Klingon war just prior and a second Borg attack, so there would have been time to modernized and recommission a few ships. with trying to get crews, there was probably a draft in place or people just joined so they could fight, With Wolf 359, it was sudden so 40 ships were all they could muster up and crews were limited.

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Posted by nx001a (Member # 291) on :

In 2366, starfleet was in a period of relative peace. Therefore, the majority of the fleet were "scattered" and the only ship in the sector was still common. At worf 359 those 40 ships were the ones that were near SOL. Maybe starfleet wanted an armanda of ships to meet the cube than having only one ship engaging the cube. It could be possible that before worf 359 there were a lot of ships that could have engaged the cube but only one at a time. It maded sense to put all your forces at one location. What do other people think?

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Posted by Mikey T (Member # 144) on :

Well, I agree that during 2366 the Federation was in relative peace. Which would most likely make the Federation Council into a decision of limited armament. The Romulans were in isolation, the Klingons were "buddies," and the Cardassians were at bay, so why bother making too many starships armed to the teeth? Why bother to support a very large military personel?

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Posted by nx001a (Member # 291) on :

Seems right since Q said starfleet were overconfident and were ill prepared in 2365. They judge themselves against the Klingons and the Romulans and they are nothing to whats waiting. Guess after that starfleet really did expand its fleet.

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Posted by Timo (Member # 245) on :

Very few of the ships we saw in DS9 could be argued to have been built after the Borg encounters. They represent elderly classes (and have such low registry numbers that even those who don't think the NCCs are strictly chronological would agree there's something amiss).

It's possible that the big fleet was taken out of mothballs for fighting the war. But one could also say that the fleet was simply scattered across Federation space during TNG, so that it took several years for some of the ships to return to home ports (and in a 8,000 ly UPF, such travel times would not be unusual).

Loss of 39 ships clustered near Earth would then indeed be a rather severe loss, because it would take several months or even years to assign new ships to that vital patrol area (I think Shelby meant this when saying the fleet would be back up in a year). Similarly, 30 ships would represent a major commitment to a border starbase in "Redemption" during peacetime, when most of the ships would be in faraway exploration assignments - but in wartime, the same starbase could routinely have 100-200 ships in the vicinity.

One could argue that the Fed doctrine, pre-Borg, was to have a relatively small defense fleet near the core worlds, perhaps 200-300 ships available at a week's notice but just 20-30 at a day's notice. There would also be tripwire units near the borders; these would fight half-hearted delaying actions but not commit themselves except in desperate situations, the idea being that the inner defence fleets would have plenty of time to regroup after the initial alarm. When there was no alarm, the fleet would be scattered to explore instead of being left idle in starbases.

This would work fine against a conventional Klingon or Cardassian invasion, which would take a week or more to reach the UFP core systems (the Romulans would get here sooner, but they would be cordoned in more efficiently). But the Borg were way faster than Klingons, so there was no time for the fleet to regroup as planned. Out of the 200-300 ships-in-a-week, some 15% were destroyed in a single battle at Wolf when the rest were still en route. That would be a major loss to the 200-300 strong local fleet if not to the entire Starfleet.

Timo Saloniemi

Posted by Sol System (Member # 30) on :

I've felt that it is also important to consider the manner in which the ships were lost at Wolf 359. 40 ships lost in a battle against a fleet of comparible strength is bad, but having them essentially vaporized within minutes by a single vessel without even significantly slowing it down is a disaster.

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Posted by Bernd (Member # 6) on :

Considering the SFT (Small Federation Theory), I wouldn't believe that it would take years for all ships to gather, but it would be a matter of weeks or months to get a fleet to fight the Dominion. The Federation just didn't have the time when the first Borg incursion occured or ships for the tachyon grid were needed. More precise calculations are still missing, but I think fleet sizes make sense, even if we assume that the number of ships in TNG and DS9 was always the same (a few thousand).

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Posted by Timo (Member # 245) on :

I subscribe to the SFT, but with the amendment that the UFP also has isolated distant holdings that justify the 8,000ly figure. It also performs exploration in this deep, deep space. Sure, the short-range ships and a healthy contingent of defensive vessels would spend time inside or near the actual SFT area, but a percentage would also be out there exploring, years away from Earth.

Starfleet would be pushing out whenever it can afford the risk - that is, between major wars. The end of the Cardassian war would give the exploration fleet a "go" signal, after which Starfleet would be unable to mount a full-scale war for a while. This would be a calculated risk, balancing the benefits of exploration against the dangers of enemy attacks. "Q Who?" or "BoBW II" would give a "return" signal to the fleet, but some ships would have been heading out for nearly a decade at that point, and would still be on their way back at the end of the Dominion war. Most of the explorers wouldn't be all that far, and some could be summoned back within a year to justify Shelby's claim.

Timo Saloniemi

Posted by AndrewR (Member # 44) on :

Timo, I also agree with the 'going out' idea... I believe that from 'Encounter at Farpoint' the Enterprise D was on an assigned direction 'out' of the Federation... genereally in the 'Ferengi' direction but the several calls back to Earth like in 'Conspiracy' etc then the Borg threat etc... caused it to 'reset' its move out... and then by season 5 (with the Klingon/Romulan problem and 7 - with the Maquis, Borg and Cardassian problems 'heating' up - the E-D became essentially 'locked' in the Federation outer boundaries

We've seen other ships out there... what was that captain's ship from "The Sound Of Your Voice" called? They'd been out for 8 years... I expect - with all things being quiet the E-D would have been out there for at least 10 years probably 5 years out and 5 years back...

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Posted by Bernd (Member # 6) on :

While 8000ly is still a lot for the distance between the farthest outposts, I could imagine this is about the diameter of explored space - where "exploring" only means "we have passed by here". In "Encounter at Farpoint", Deneb, "only" 2000ly away is described as the farthest outpost. In "BoBW", Jouret, the "outermost colony" or something like that, can be reached by the Enterprise in no time.

Posted by Timo (Member # 245) on :

There could be several categories of "outermost" - the outermost defence outpost, the outermost colony, the outermost research outpost, the outer limit of exploration. I think the 8,000ly diameter theory requires the assumption that some members of the UFP come from planets never visited by Federation starships at all! It would suffice for explorers from those planets and explorers from the UFP to have met halfway in between and forged diplomatic ties.

Thus, Deneb could the the fartherst reach of rotationward exploration by ships from the UFP core worlds, but at the same time there could be member planets rotationward from Deneb.

I'd think that the layers of "outermosts" would go, counting inward from any direction:

-Outermost places of which the UFP has indirect but detailed data (rumors, subspace telescope readings)
-Outermost member systems
-Outer reach of exploration by UFP ships and probes (not including extreme-range probes like Quadros 1)
-Outer reach of Starfleet combat forces for offensive purposes
-Outermost colonies, mostly undefended
-Outer practical defence perimeter, including main Starfleet forces and fixed defence installations
-The majority of member worlds and colonies
-Core worlds
-Sector 001 and its local fleet
-Sol system and its defence perimeters
-Earth and its planetary defences
-The outer fence around the Presidential Palace in Paris and the pit bull patrolling the turf

The distances would vary from direction to direction, but the order of "outermosts" would not. "Enemy" territory could lie at virtually any distance - some enemies might only neighbor the most distant member worlds, some might have borders against the practical defence perimeter, while others might have embassies on Earth, their gardeners engaged in fierce border disputes with those of the Presidential Palace Gardens...

Timo Saloniemi

Posted by Cartman (Member # 256) on :

Whichever theory you think is most likely, I do not believe that either is entirely correct. The Federation and virtually every other "major" galactic power would not be able to hold together such enormous volumes of space (LFT) or be able to construct so many (10000+) ships (SFT). And given that neither theory is more likely then the other it is not really possible to speculate just how the Federation's defense / exploration - forces / missions - operates. To me, the LFT seems most similar to how WWII naval battles were fought, with every friendly and enemy move calculated in advance and even small losses having dramatic consequences for future engagements and tactics. But since these battles were only two-dimensional, with the Pacific ocean being the "playing grid", they cannot be likened to the three-dimensional combat strategies needed in space (which is a few thousend lightyears "thick") - thus making the LFT unlikely. Space encounters occur in real-time, and therefore it does not make sense to have a few hundred ships here, a few hundred there, and a bunch in between, and then hope that in the event of an invasion (which COULD, of course, involve hundreds of vessels but would only come from ONE direction, since the taskforce would otherwise be too much spread out) the "first layer" can slow them down, and the second layer, should the first fail, completely stop the enemy advancement. If a few hundred Russian (excuse the stereotyping) nucleair submarines would, for instance, depart from their base in Murmansk now, they would have to be intercepted and disabled / destroyed BEFORE they could pose a threat to American cities. A "shell" consisting of multiple patrolling carrier groups would have to be pretty much focussed on a single location, because that would be the only way to stop the intrusion into Allied waters. Remember that, even if those submarines were completely surrounded after they entered striking distance (when the supposed "shell" had contracted around them) they could still launch their missiles and accomplish their objectives. So, territorial defense would have to be far less "passive" and much more "active & responsive", even if the SFT doesn't fit with the number of ships in the Starfleet (it would make sense during Wolf 359, though)

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Posted by TSN (Member # 31) on :

Y'know, the differnet classifications of "outermost" aren't really necessary. Deneb may simply have been the farthest outpost in that particular direction, while the Federation expands for over 6000ly in the opposite direction.

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Posted by Timo (Member # 245) on :

Having the Federation extend 6000 ly in the direction opposite from Deneb is not good, because then the UFP would lie mostly in the Beta quadrant (the parts in Alpha would be quite small compared to those in Beta). Dialogue calls the UFP an Alpha quadrant political entity, suggesting the parts in Beta are those that are insignificantly small.

I'm not convinced that the "small Federation +outliers" theory couldn't work. There's nothing to say a SFT empire couldn't build tens of thousands or even millions of starships. A single star system might build that many for all we know (and for example the Romulan Star Empire might be such a single-system wonder, constrained as it is by the Neutral Zone).

And a SF+OT might assume that the outliers are only locally defended and not at all defended by the main body of Starfleet. After all, if the outliers are distant from the core worlds, they are also distant from the core enemies - Klingon or Romulan or Cardassian ships would have just as much trouble reaching them as Starfleet defence forces would. If the outliers attract foreign interest, then they will fall. But probably they aren't interesting enough, their main importance lying in the fact that their location allows the UFP propaganda machine to claim the Federation is "8,000 ly across". Only the UFP is interested in having member systems it cannot defend due to the distances involved - the Klingons would never even try to acquire such systems.

As for the layered defence, I'm thinking the outer layer would only serve as an early warning system - it would be impossible for it to efficiently patrol the whole surface area of the UFP, let alone intercept the intruders. True defences would consist of fortified systems, plus a mobile force of starships that would move to defend the system where the enemy was heading. That would require less ships than the assigning of entire defence-capable fleets to each system permanently. Against the fast-moving Borg, the system would be powerless, but against conventional enemies it would be the only one to make economical sense.

And the distance at which invading fleets can truly threaten a planet seems to be mere thousands or at most millions of kilometers. This is quite different from defending a city against SLBMs - the better analogy would be a nation built on an archipelago defending against late 19th or early 20th century gun-toting, aircraft-less naval forces from another archipelago nation, in a war theater as big as the Pacific.

Timo Saloniemi

Posted by Harry (Member # 265) on :

Little bit of maths:

According to reg's, there were ~80000 ships built.
highest reg = 79650 (Prometheus plaque-version)
lowest reg = 1701 (not *the* lowest, but low enough)
so, that makes 79650-1701=77859 ships built in 2370-2240=130 years

77859/130= around 600 ships per year

Let's say there 150 shipyards, that makes an average of 4 ships per shipyard per year. So, it should take about 3 months to build a ship!

Formula:
((A-B)/(C-D))/S
A=Highest registry
B=Lowest registry
C=Year when lowest registry was introduced
D=Year when highest registry was introduced
S=Amount of shipyards in the Federation

This formula is based on the assumption that the registries are at least partially chronological and it doesn't take into account the growth of the Federation.

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Posted by Fructose (Member # 309) on :

What about non-combat and utility craft. I don't think they would use a science ship to fight the borg unless they wanted to use it as a decoy. But then the crew would be put in serious risk. Also, all the runabouts had individual registry numbers. If they had more than one class of those then they could easily drop the number of 'real' ships down to a much lower number. (And besides, they would take a lot less time to build than a larger ship.) If you want to get down to it, there would probably be just as many non-combat ships as there are combat ships at any one given time. Just consider the logistical requirements of running the whole fleet. You'd have cargo, survey, curiour, science, medivac, and a whole slew of other minor types. It is possible that SF was concentrating on a more peaceful doctrine before the Borg and then decided to refit a bunch of ships to a combat roll.

Another possibility is that they had a reserve fleet, like the Army Reserve and Army National Guard. They would be there, but only activated in a time of war to really suppliment the active fighting forces. That's what the US did in the Gulf War. Trained forces ready to go at a moments notice, but not considered a part of the 'real' fleet.

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Posted by The359 (Member # 37) on :

Uh, Prakesh, the highest known registry is NCC-75633 for the USS Sao Paulo. USS Prometheus is NX-74913.

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Posted by Wes (Member # 212) on :

What episode was the Sao Paulo seen/mentioned in?

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Posted by AndrewR (Member # 44) on :

Have you seen all of season 7 DS9? If not that might be a spoiler.

Andrew

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