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[QUOTE]Originally posted by First of Two: [QB] Climate models: [QUOTE] Simulating El Ni�o: How Are the Models Doing? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Reference Latif, M., Sperber, K., Arblaster, J., Braconnot, P., Chen, D., Colman, A., Cubasch, U., Cooper, C., Delecluse, P., DeWitt, D., Fairhead, L., Flato, G., Hogan, T., Ji, M., Kimoto, M., Kitoh, A., Knutson, T., Le Treut, H., Li, T., Manabe, S., Marti, O., Mechoso, C., Meehl, G., Power, S., Roeckner, E., Sirven, J., Terray, L., Vintzileos, A., Voss, R., Wang, B., Washington, W., Yoshikawa, I., Yu, J. and Zebiak, S. 2001. ENSIP: the El Ni�o simulation intercomparison project. Climate Dynamics 18: 255-276. What was done The authors compared 24 coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models with respect to their ability to correctly simulate the annual mean state, the seasonal cycle, and the interannual variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean. What was learned In the words of the authors, "almost all models (even those employing flux corrections) still have problems in simulating the SST climatology." They also note that "only a few of the coupled models simulate the El Ni�o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in terms of gross equatorial SST anomalies realistically." And they state that "no model has been found that simulates realistically all aspects of the interannual SST variability."[/QUOTE]In other words, only a few of the climate simulators even come CLOSE to being able to realistically simulate a single, fairly short-term event, such as El Nino. As for what "most scientists" believe... do I have to drag out my link again? [/QB][/QUOTE]
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