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That's it, Iraq . . .
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by First of Two: [QB] [QUOTE]Originally posted by Austin Powers: [qb] Which doesn't change the fact that the rest of the "evidence" was just as substantial/irrelevant. [/qb][/QUOTE]Just remember, you asked for it... From another discussion board (added emphasis mine) [QUOTE]For those that don't know me, my name's Yancy, and I live in Phoenix, AZ. I served in the US Army for eight years as a 96B (Intelligence Analyst). I served almost all my time in the Republic of Panama. I was one of USARSOs (US Army South), primary political/economic analysts covering Panama, and was one of the primary analysts tasked with following terrorist organizations and their activities in Latin America (spent a lot of time covering Sendero Luminoso aka "Shining Path" as well as following Hezbollah activities in the region). Anyway to my point, I was mainly writing because so many people had questioned the validity of the imagery photos Sec of State Powell had shown in his UN briefing.. "how do they know what that is???" "How do they know that's a decontamination truck, it looks like a grey blob??" Well the reason they know is simple... training. Imagery analysts are highly trained individuals who pour over hundreds of photos at a light table (usually at the cost of their sight... they don't go blind, but staring into a light table for hours on end usually results in the analyst needing glasses later on). These people know what they are looking for. They know the equipment the "bad guys" use... So when an imagery analysts says "that's an NBC decon truck," they KNOW that's what it is. One of the main reasons it's fairly easy to determine what Sadaam is using is that he almost exclusively uses Russian/Soviet equipment (with the exception of some French, and Chinese stuff)... Heck, his armies use old Russian military doctrine... He's a pretty easy nut to crack. So, knowing that he uses primarily Soviet-era euipment, the analyst looks at the image and says,"what kind of Soviet vehicle configuration does this truck match?" Well, it could be the old Zil-131 or a Ural 375. Both trucks have a certain profile when configured for use in NBC decon... if someone put a gun to my head I'd guess the Ural 375 since the Zil is so antiquated. Anyway, that's why these guys know what they're doing.. they know what they're looking for. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE][b]Thank you First of Two, thank you for some common sense. [/b] One other thing to keep in mind too is that no one, and I mean NO ONE would ever conduct an intelligence briefing based soley on one piece of information (a Satellite photo), or one aspect of intelligence collection (i.e., SIGINT -Signals Intelligence-, COMINT -Communications Intelligence-, ELINT -Electronics Intelligence-, or HUMINT -Human Intelligence-). I have sat through or conducted hundreds of briefings for Senior Staff level personnel, and I have yet to meet any analyst who would, excuse the French, "hang their dick out in the wind" on a hunch, or guess... You need to have multiple sources to back up you analysis. I could tell you all sorts of stories about tracking down bad guys, or monitoring terrorist groups... and never once did I tell my DCSINT (Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence) or the USARSO Commander... "well, it kind of looks like this, and I guess they will do this." No, I always had facts to back up my assertions, and historical precedence to back up my analysis. I KNEW what I was talking about, and my commanders had the utmost faith in me. I'm not trying to brag or boast, but most PFCs (which is what I was two monthes after I got to Panama) don't brief Senior staff, I was... and you know what I found out??? I wasn't the only one... there are a ton of very talented analysts in the Army and they know what they are doing, and what they are talking about. Sorry, given the choice of trusting the analysis of a U.S. Army Imagery analyst, or the "best guesses" of some Frech Foreign Ministry official... I'll take the Amry guy every time. Yancey [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]HOAH! I've briefed guys all the way up to the reprobate that was in NCA at the time (on Kashmir, of all thngs), and as Yancy pointed out, we do not make intel reports based off one bit of data. No one in authority is going to stick their neck out on a guess; they're too fond of their careers. The sat images, the intercepts -- they're all great, but they only give you 'warnings and indicators'. The solid intel is done by some brave but scared guy, in country, who could be burned at a moment's notice if a particular bit of intelligence is released. Our 'flawed' intelligence in Bosnia and other missions through the '80s/90s were due to massive cutbacks in HUMINT (the guys on the ground) and thepolicymakers screwing up by not listening to what we tell them. It's been improving over the past couple of years as we've turned our focus back toward HUMINT to augment SIGINT and PHOTINT. In Iraq, it's always been the case that our best data coes from some brave but terrified guy (usually a native) hanging it all out to get us the truth. We slip up with who gets the raw data, this guy dies. [/QUOTE] [QUOTE]Yeah qerlin. guys on the ground a really hanging it all out for us. Just one bit of info I found very funny... I was watching Powell's briefing to the Senate Intelligence commitee on Thursday. Well, good old Sen Joe Biden chimes in about Powell's assertion that AL Qaeda operatives were working out of northern Iraq. Well, Biden presses Powell on the issue and ask (I'm paraphrasing): "If we know Al-Qaeda is operating facilities in northern Iraq, why don't we simply send in Special Forces to take them out???" Powell's response "I'd like to answer that quenstion, but it must be in private." Okay, lets analyze for a sec... Joe, the reason I can't tell you is that we have an operative in that cell, or at the very least Special Ops guys in the area are monitoring their every step... My guess is we have a Kurdish operative in the cell. More than likely, a lot of the info that resulted in us increasing our threat level to "High" came from monitoring this group. Consequently Joe, we cannot afford to take out this cell just yet, it's probably providing us some of the best intel we have on Al-Qaeda. BTW, check out these articles from the New York Post and New Yorker: http://www.nypost.com/postopinion/o...nists/68525.htm http://www.newyorker.com/fact/content/?030210fa_fact [/QUOTE]And just in case the more paranoia-laden among you think I made this all up, here's a link to the thread -- you can ask them yourselves. http://forum.trek-rpg.net/showthread.php?s=&threadid=6816&perpage=15&pagenumber=8 [/QB][/QUOTE]
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