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Arafat: Dead?
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[QUOTE]Originally posted by David Sands: [QB] The bloggers have nothingto do with the credibility of the source they cited. I had thought of saying something about that last paragraph you wrote two posts ago, but I wanted to keep mine short. Of course they have a motivation to quote facts that help their case, but that doesn't mean that the facts they cite are necessarily wrong. A source stands on its own apart from whoever cited it. This dynamic is somewhat similar to [URL=http://www.techcentralstation.com/100703B.html]the problem Arnold Kling identified in Paul Krugman's logic[/URL]. We can impute motives to anyone, but that does not make the facts (or the "consequences" in Kling's column) less true. I'd rather see the argument stick to the probabilities that the sources cited in the IsraelInsider were telling the truth or not. I wish I had more of a background in statistics, because I'm not sure what I'm leaving out here. What I'm trying to get at with the proven/not proven problem is that until you can show that one contingency is not the case (e.g., show there is a symptom or event wholly incosistent with one option), it stays in the sum equation that expresses all the possibilities. The only thing all the circumstantial evidence goes toward is the value that each contingency is discounted by: (0.X)(He has leukemia) + (0.Y)(He has HIV) + (0.Z)(He has lupus) + . . . = 100% (0.X) and so on being the probability that its adjacent event is true, 100% being 1.0, 50% being 0.5, etc. Now it's true that one of these additive parts might be of a substantially lower value than another. What I'm getting at is that all the circumstantial evidence we put forward just shifts the values of probability variables. But because no one has put forth evidence inconsistent with his sickness, each value has to stay in there. [/QB][/QUOTE]
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