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[QUOTE]Originally posted by Joshua Bell: [QB] IMHO, it's just not worth it to speculate along these lines. Forget Star Trek for the moment. Think of the advancement of technology we're observing today. It's extremely likely that within the next 100 years (I'm betting close to 50) we'll hit what SF author Vernor Vinge calls a technological singularity. Google on "vinge singularity" and pick the definition and discussion which suits you best. Short definition: At any point in time there is a horizon past which any reasonable prediction of the future is pointless. One might argue, for example, that circa 1000 CE the horizon was unbounded. Circa 1900 CE, the horizon might be 2000 CE - someone alive in 1900 would be on the edge of being unable to cope if dropped into modern society. They'd probably do fine - after all, we're still all human. For now. As the rate of technologically driven change increases, the distance between now and the horizon drops. I'd say that at the outside, and barring any catastrophe that takes devastates the developed world (nuclear war, dramatic climate change, disease, nanotech gray-goo, etc), what the world will be like in 100 years is effectively unpredictable. The singularity concept points out that at some point the horizon shrinks until it's literally *now* - the rate of change is so fast that a transition point is hit and everything is effectively swept away by the change. Common SF thoughts on this are that self-replicating, self-improving AI develops which nearly instantly surpasses human intelligence and replaces humans; or human interconnectedness and ability increases and the result is radically different behavior (e.g. 10 billion people plugged directly into the Internet). Whether or not you think any particular outcome is likely, if you're serious about thinking about the progression of technology and society you have to come to the conclusion that either (1) advancement continues at a frantic pace, (2) advancement stops/plateaus, or (3) advancement regresses. (3) is unpalatable; we nuke ourselves back to the stone age, or go luddite and smash the machines, or starve ourselves, etc. Depressing but either over fast or just a temporary setback before the same point is reached again. I don't believe that (2) is stable, but it's an interesting fiction. And i think it's the premise that SF worlds like Star Wars and Star Trek *must* make; the technology has plateaued at some point and it requires a very dramatic shift to advance to the next level. You could use that excuse in Star Trek, since they love to show humanoids turning into energy beings. :) Star Wars has potential here - imagine that the technology seen in the movies was the most advanced that could be built: that R2-D2 is the epitome of machine intelligence, that an X-Wing is the best fighter achievable within the laws of physics. Alas, Lucas *and* the fan-boys like to depict technological advancement (same as Star Trek geeks, as this thread shows!) so it's unlikely. (As an aside: in the Foundation's Triumph sequel to Asimov's Foundation books by Brin, Brin rationalizes the 10k years of stagnation of galactic society by having a conspiracy of robots stomping out any technology advancement!) Which leaves (1). And I think both DS9 and Voyager - more than TNG - showed continued technological development at a fast pace. This is where the TNG:TM comment "if you could replicate a starship, you wouldn't need to" makes sense. If you grant the Federation powers like replicators, memory engram recorders, and androids, you will invariably have to think, "why not put a copy of Data, with uploaded people along for the ride, into a self-replicating starship and have it replicate its way through the galaxy exploring and spreading the Federation?" In the TNG era we could come up with excuses like "Data can't be quantum replicated" - so the minute you allow any technology advancement these objections go away. Summary: since I think we're already (2004 CE) less than 50 years from a singularity with our measly 21st Century technology, it's impossible to speculate on any sort of progression of the 24th Century technology shown in TNG/DS9/Voy for many more years without having to cripple the speculation and throw logic out the window in the name of dramatic necessity. Whew! After spending time on the phone with my DSL provider arguing about who�s fault it was that their router configuration sucked, I had to get that off my chest. :) [/QB][/QUOTE]
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