posted
Grocka: Obviously, diplomacy involves many instances where there is such a thing as a no-win scenario. This is one of those cases. Until the North Koreans realize that they're not going anywhere with their inconsistent and irrational policies (probably around the time that they finally get fed up with Kim Jong Il and overthrow those communist nutcases), we're basically stuck with the status quo. Therefore, the position of insisting upon multilateral negotiations is more about our relationships with the other nations involved (including and especially China) rather than trying to get results from those wacky North Koreans.
Registered: Nov 2000
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posted
Strange to have China on our (and Japan and South Korea's ) side though.
Russia's the place to be watching lately: they're becoming the world's biggest arms dealer. They just agreed to sell Chavez's regieme 100,000 AK assualt rifles.
...how long before they start selling nukes? Sounds crazy, but it's a major concern of the British ands American governments.
The russians can not even account for all their old warheads.
-------------------- Justice inclines her scales so that wisdom comes at the price of suffering. -Aeschylus, Agamemnon
Registered: Aug 2002
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posted
My question is - what if KJI *is* nuts enough to nuke anyone? Aren't the concepts of mutually-assured destruction in effect here? Or is the international community worried that NK doesn't understand that? Or are we still worried about NK making nukes and selling them to terrorists?
posted
That's the whole problem... Kim Jong Il probably is nuts enough to not care about mutually-assured destruction. Even if in his case, assuming he doesn't have globally-reaching missiles and enough warheads to carpet-bomb the entire US, even a nuclear war would be extremely one-sided, although still unbelievably messy (to put it mildly).
Think about it: at this point, most analysts figure that the DPRK has one or two warheads, with enough material to make maybe a dozen at most. It's been two years (almost) that they've been working at actually building the bombs. So assuming that this standoff doesn't go on indefinitely, we're talking about less than a hundred nukes, most likely only a tiny fraction of that number. Compare that to the thousands in the US arsenal...
It goes without saying, though, that any nuclear warfare, even if it were "limited" (in that it wouldn't be the big US-USSR-scale World War III that people were afraid of during the Cold War) would still be incredibly catastrophic for all concerned. Even if Kim couldn't reach the US directly, making a mess of South Korea and Japan would cause so much havoc (militarily, politically, economically, and environmentally) that we'd be in pretty big trouble anyway.
Plus, if one country (even one as nutty as North Korea) breaks the long-standing tradition of not using nukes (at least since their "demonstrations" in WWII), it would remove a lot of the barriers for other, more rational countries to start using nukes too. Dare I mention India and Pakistan? Or Israel?
-------------------- “Those people who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do.” — Isaac Asimov Star Trek Minutiae | Memory Alpha
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posted
Kim cares about leverage more than he cares about making a mess.
-------------------- ".mirrorS arE morE fuN thaN televisioN" - TEH PNIK FLAMIGNO
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posted
I doubt that lets people in South Korea sleep any easier though.
-------------------- Justice inclines her scales so that wisdom comes at the price of suffering. -Aeschylus, Agamemnon
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-------------------- Justice inclines her scales so that wisdom comes at the price of suffering. -Aeschylus, Agamemnon
Registered: Aug 2002
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quote:Grocka: Obviously, diplomacy involves many instances where there is such a thing as a no-win scenario.
Well before Bush pulled out of the talks with NK, on very sketchy information, there were inspectors on the ground in NK. ,the talks were ongoing, and NK was able to heat and feed it's people. Bush did the same thing to NK that he did to Iraq, used exagerated info, and worse case senarios to back up his claims of cheating by NK. Now the situation is that NK is bound by nothing, , there are no talks and we have no way of knowing just what NK has or doesn't have. I suggest you read this , and not get all of your info from the Bush admin. Bush tends to lie.
-------------------- "and none of your usual boobery." M. Burns
Registered: Oct 2001
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posted
While I agree that the Bush administration is full of crap, I wouldn't say there is "no way of knowing just what NK has or doesn't have".
After all, it's not as though the inspectors had free reign to go whereever they wanted: they were always escorted by KN military personell and they had to request where they would "inspect" far in advance.
Besides, there is almost certainly a huge amount of intel we are not privy to (from satelites, spy planes and spies in KN- from the US and undoubtdly Japan, China and South Korea as well).
Playing hardball with NK is the only course of action that no one has tried so far: the previous decade of nuclear disarmament talks have obviously meant nothing to Kim.
-------------------- Justice inclines her scales so that wisdom comes at the price of suffering. -Aeschylus, Agamemnon
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posted
I think KJL is in the same frame of mind that many around the globe are in these days. ie. Who could care less what America thinks???
Registered: Mar 1999
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posted
KJL seems ONLY to care what America thinks though: he seems not to even know the countries around him exist but wants to "negoitiate" (get money from in exchange for empty promises hat politicians can hail as a "victory") the US alone, in closed-door talks.
-------------------- Justice inclines her scales so that wisdom comes at the price of suffering. -Aeschylus, Agamemnon
Registered: Aug 2002
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posted
Two major points in the debate: 1: KJI wants to keephis North Korean world closed, so his people don't know that they don't really live in paradise. Having powerful weapons to force the US to give him tribute is a good way to do that.
2: A Nuclear North korea is real high on China's list of things they don't want on their border.
-------------------- joH'a' 'oH wIj DevwI' jIH DIchDaq Hutlh pagh (some days it's just not worth chewing through the leather straps in the morning) The Woozle!
Registered: Nov 2002
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posted
Okay, so now those wacky North Koreans are even refusing direct negotiations with the US, which they were previously demanding. As I understand it, refusal to negotiate would normally be a direct prelude to war.
But of course, after going hunting for a big cache of nukes that didn't exist, it's virtually impossible to now lay the smackdown on a country that definitely does have nukes. But hey, who cares -- we've got lots of oil now!
...
Yes, I do know that attacking North Korea would be a massively messy situation even under the best of circumstances, even messier than Iraq is right now. I was being partially facetious with my previous paragraph. However, while everyone's pleading for North Korea to come back to the table, nobody's doing anything else about it. It's like the world's shaking their collective heads, muttering "shame, shame... someone should do something about it..." but desperately hoping they don't have to do anything themselves.
Y'know, everyone complains about the US being the only superpower now, but is there any other country out there -- or better yet, a group of countries -- that's even trying to do something in situations like these? If everyone else wants to change the Order Of Things in this world, why can't they be more proactive?
(And before anyone flames me into oblivion for that last musing, I know that conflict -- and worse, open warfare -- should never be sought after, but neither should it be avoided at all costs. I'm afraid that too many countries are becoming afraid to do something about this growing crisis.)
-------------------- “Those people who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do.” — Isaac Asimov Star Trek Minutiae | Memory Alpha
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posted
When were we hunting for a big cache of nukes?
-------------------- Justice inclines her scales so that wisdom comes at the price of suffering. -Aeschylus, Agamemnon
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