"Many scientists are also worried about a possible collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation, a current that brings warm surface water to northern Europe and returns cold, deep-ocean water south. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, who directs Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, has run multiple computer models to determine when climate change could disrupt this "conveyor belt," which, according to one study, is already slower than it was 30 years ago. According to these simulations, there is a 50 percent chance the current will collapse within 200 years."
Makes me wonder if The Day After Tomarrow movie's going to come true. The superstorms and instant freeze isn't likely to happen.
I've noticed that this winter has been significantly warmer than even just 5 years ago. The coldest it's gotten was -25 Celsius. That's usually a warm day for most of the winter. The average this year has been around -10 and -20 Celcius. Not that I'm complaining, 5 years ago the temperature used to hover between -30 and -40 which is generally normal for Saskatchewan, and didn't stop people from going about thier business, working, skiing, snowmobiling etc. I know we got people from all over the world here, have you guys noticed any changes in the climate where you live? I'm interested to see what the summer holds for us. the last couple years we didn't have the usual heatwave that came in the last week of August that suspiciously coincides with the closing of the local waterpark...
Posted by Dat (Member # 302) on :
I live in Sacramento on the west coast, and heck, even our winters have been warmer. I remember when winter days could have been below freezing, and now while they can still come close, it's been above 32 degrees F.
Posted by Shakaar (Member # 1782) on :
Kansas has certainly felt different this season- we got a thunderstorm the other day, there are some fruit trees that are budding, certain types of flowers are coming up, and the winter wheat that should also be dormant is starting to grow.
Posted by AndrewR (Member # 44) on :
Well last year was officially the hottest year in Australia since records began.
For the last... 4 years we have not had a winter - oh it got cold - maybe winter pyjamas were required on one night - but that was about it. Gone are the lovely cold winter days and nights. In Brisbane, around show-day (Ekka/The Exhibition) we should be getting gusty Westerly winds. We haven't had them or they have come a month late for the last 4 or 5 years. Currently it's the worst drought on record. Our dams are at 33.9% capacity. At 30% we go to stage 3 water restrictions. A Ban on hoses and if you want to water the garden it has to be with a bucket.
We've had a few storms this summer - but nothing like we used to get in the late eighties/early ninties. Usually you'd get an awesome thunder storm every evening - or at least every second evening during summer. (Summer is our wet season).
North Queensland hasn't had a cyclone in a number of years. They maintain we aren't in an El Ni�o.
Posted by B.J. (Member # 858) on :
Discovery or TLC or someone did a show on this several years ago. Ironic that global warming, if it causes this collapse, will hasten the next ice age.
B.J.
Posted by Da_bang80 (Member # 528) on :
I don't think Global Warming is the sole cause of the environmental troubles the planet now faces. Mankind has been producing Carbon Dioxide for thousands of years through wood/coal burning stoves and our own exhalations. Yes there are other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere but not at the levels that would affect the entire planet. Other chemical pollutants such as Chloroflourocarbons also contribute but are not classified as greenhouse gases. I'm no climatologist but the Earth goes through a warming/cooling cycle every few thousand years. Everybodies running around convinced that it's global warming when it may in fact be just a natural occurance that people really can't study all that well because the time scales are so different. The Earth has been in existence for over 4 billion years. We can't even begin to comprehend that kind of scale. The 80 or so years we're alloted is like a blink. Over almost before it begins in geological terms. And there's only so much we can learn from looking at rocks and fossils. I'm not so much worried that we'll destroy the planet. It's survived much worse than a bunch of polluting humans. I'm more worried about the human race surviving the planet.
Let's say the Trans-Atlantic current collapses the day after tomarrow. and 20 years from now everything above the 49th parallel is under a kilometer of ice. Thats like 300 million (rough estimate) people displaced. where will they go? say in 40 years everything north of Texas is frozen solid. I can't even begin to guess how many people that is. Lets not forget the south pole either. It freezes too. So that leaves a stretch of habitable land at the equator. How are 6 billion people going to live like that? There will be wars over every conceivable thing. Land, Food, resources. We'll most likely destroy ourselves.
Some day we may fuck up the planet enough that we as a species won't be able to survive. But that doesn't mean something won't survive and possible even thrive. And eventually the planet will adapt. I'm not a tree hugger but I think we as a race should take steps to insure that the planet remains habitable for us. It's the only one we've got. And we're not likely to find another one anytime soon.
Posted by AndrewR (Member # 44) on :
Well maybe you are right Bang - but what I said is just what I've noticed over the last five or so years. We don't have winter anymore, we are also running out of water.
Posted by Da_bang80 (Member # 528) on :
Dude, that sucks. Come to Canada. You can have all the water and winter you'll ever want. Seriously tho. Even our water supplies are running low. The water level at thelake that my parents have a cabin at has dropped over a meter since I was last there. And its a pretty big lake. We havn't had any really nice summer thunderstorms here in a while either. Too dry. It's still hot though.
Posted by Topher (Member # 71) on :
The water level most certainly isn't decreasing in New Brunswick. If anything, its increasing. The Saint John River was at one of the highest points on record last spring, lots of flooding. And this winter it hasn't fully frozen over yet. In fact, it was frozen over for maybe a week or so and then thawed up again. We're not getting much snow but every now and again we're getting lots of rain that's flooding some regions. As of late winter still comes, but instead of being a November-February/March kind of thing, its a January-April kind of thing. Only, here it is the end of January and its not even that bad. Temperatures haven't gone much lower than -20, which is odd.
Posted by Timo (Member # 245) on :
quote: I'm not so much worried that we'll destroy the planet. It's survived much worse than a bunch of polluting humans. I'm more worried about the human race surviving the planet.
The worst doomsday figures for global temperatures in the next few hundred years are basically what Earth was treated to during the last interglacial period, very recent in both geological and biological terms. The Eem was enough to nudge evolution noticeably forward (or backward), but no threat to the existence of life per se. And the existing record of seesawing interglacials and interstadials shows that there is no major danger of runaway positive-feedback phenomena there.
Detonating all our nukes at once wouldn't make much of an impact, either. Deliberately detonating them so that radioactive soot covered maximal land areas might have a short-time effect, but it would be a fairly inefficient way to cause mass extinctions.
However, blow big enough a hole in the ozone and kill the plankton, and THEN you are definitely speaking trouble... And this is something we just possibly might do without deliberate effort, and take to its fatal conclusion before we ourselves perish.
Timo Saloniemi
Posted by AndrewR (Member # 44) on :
quote:Originally posted by Topher: The water level most certainly isn't decreasing in New Brunswick. If anything, its increasing. The Saint John River was at one of the highest points on record last spring, lots of flooding.
See that's the thing - that sounds like La Ni�a yet they say that we aren't in one of those periods yet. We get El Ni�o when North America gets La Ni�a.
Posted by Peregrinus (Member # 504) on :
Here in Western Washington, we're on track for the wettest January on record. We had a couple dry days earlier this month that screwed up our bid for most continuous days of rain. The ground is getting saturated, and trees and utility poles are randomly falling over as their footings become compromised. We've also had a slew of avalanches and landslides. But apart from one day back in December, it's hasn't snowed at all this year.
--Jonah
Posted by AndrewR (Member # 44) on :
El Nino and La Nina are determined by the heat of the water in the Pacific ocean. The large number of hurricanes in the Atlantic is also determined by the heat of the waters in the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico... there has to be some connection.
Posted by TSN (Member # 31) on :
"Everybodies running around convinced that it's global warming when it may in fact be just a natural occurance that people really can't study all that well because the time scales are so different."
So, it may not be global warming ; it may just be that the globe is getting warmer?
I hate when people confuse the issue by claiming that global warming itself does not exist. Global warming = warming of the globe. Judging even by what people are saying here, it's getting pretty hard to deny that it's happening.
If you like, you can argue that global warming isn't caused by humans. But don't claim it doesn't exist at all.
Posted by Da_bang80 (Member # 528) on :
Dude, I think you misunderstood me. What I meant by global warming, is the idea that human pollution is causing the globe to warm. I don't deny the globe is getting warmer. I just don't think it's caused entirely by human pollution. this "Warming of the globe" as you put it might be a natural occurance. that's what I was trying to get across.
Posted by TSN (Member # 31) on :
Well, that's my point. People go around saying "global warming isn't real", when what they really mean is "I don't think global warming is caused by people". The whole debate is bad enough without confusing it even further with inaccurate terminology.
Posted by Da_bang80 (Member # 528) on :
I guess your right. I should have explained myself better. It made sense at the time.
I wonder what the world will be like after the next ice age. Pretty much all we've built will be demolished by the millions of tons of ice covering it. It'd be like the world pressed the Reset button and we have a fresh start.
Posted by AndrewR (Member # 44) on :
What?? One gigantic Voyager episode!?! NOoooooo!
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
I live in south Florida- this crazy talk does not effect me in any way. goes to stock up on hurricane supplies
Posted by Da_bang80 (Member # 528) on :
In a decade or two you might be stocking up on Parka's and Snowshoes. When that happens, the only thing I'll have to say to you is: Welcome to MY World!
Posted by Da_bang80 (Member # 528) on :
In a decade or two you might be stocking up on Parka's and Snowshoes. When that happens, the only thing I'll have to say to you is: Welcome to MY World! *FUCK! another double post. Goddamn Firefox!*
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
You have to think in Russian for it to work right...
Posted by bX (Member # 419) on :
I get it. No, but Clint Eastwoon is the bomb, yo.
Posted by Cartman (Member # 256) on :
"You have to think in Russian for it to work right..."
The statute of limitations on repeating your own joke is longer than seven months, chum.
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
Still works though whenever Firefox has a glitch I always think of Eastwood about to black out in the cockpit of that silly looking plane...or in this case some Flarite making the same strained facial expressions as he's posting.
Yet, I'm honored you took the time to search for that- I'd forgotten it myself. Posted by Grokca (Member # 722) on :
quote:In a decade or two you might be stocking up on Parka's and Snowshoes. When that happens, the only thing I'll have to say to you is: Welcome to MY World!
Isn't it 'welcome to his world', as you will be push so far south that we will all become USians. Fuck this global warming is pretty scary stuff. Going to have to learn how to naturally say thing like " Yee Haw" "Can I borrow your gun" "Sure the iceage is punishment from god" " Do our kids really have to be brainwashed with that mantra every morning?" It's going to be hell.
Posted by Da_bang80 (Member # 528) on :
What I meant by "my" world was snow and Ice and below 0 temps for half the year.
We got something in common, he lives on Americas Wang, and I live in a town named after a Dick Piercing...
Posted by Peregrinus (Member # 504) on :
Actually, by then most of Florida will be underwater. I plan on finding a nice high sone crag or escarpment upon which to build mysolar/wind/geothermal-powered home with the full greenhouse and the nearby artesian spring.
Architecture is interesting, but architecture geared toward surviving the next ice age is really fun! I only hope enough knowledge and smart people survive -- without becoming Morlocks -- that when things ease up again, we can sort of pick up where we left off. As it stands, iff too much is lost, then we're screwed, because a second Industrial Revolution would be practically impossible without readily exploitable coal and oil deposits.
--Jonah
Posted by B.J. (Member # 858) on :
Florida may be underwater at first due to the heat wave, but by the following ice age, it will definitely be high and dry.
Posted by Topher (Member # 71) on :
At which time you could walk from Cuba to Florida instead of turning your car into a boat.
Posted by AndrewR (Member # 44) on :
Would you be able to access an artestian water supply from high-atop a mountain/hill Peregrinus? Posted by Peregrinus (Member # 504) on :
There are several in th eplace I'm looking.
--Jonah
Posted by Pensive's Wetness (Member # 1203) on :
quote:Originally posted by Peregrinus, before Pensive took the wheel and steered the Topic bus into oncoming traffic: There are sever*~
'Long-time members are given a high level of leeway in regards to this ruleset, so please don't think that you can do the same things that the people that registered in 1999 can do.'
When did i get those snazzy pens that i keep seeing on some of the senior staff?
quote:We now return to the topic, already in progress.... can some one call 911?: *al in the place I'm looking.
--Jonah
Well to add to this.... instead of a SUV, i bought a used '05 Chevy Cobalt...
Posted by Peregrinus (Member # 504) on :
*blink*
...the hell...?
--Jonah
Posted by Da_bang80 (Member # 528) on :
quote:Originally posted by Pensive's Wetness: When did i get those snazzy pens that i keep seeing on some of the senior staff?
Get ready for a long wait. I've been here five years and I just got Senior Member status. It's like my birthday came early this year! Posted by TSN (Member # 31) on :
No, it just came late for last year.
Posted by AndrewR (Member # 44) on :
You can get support for that now Tim. Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
quote:Originally posted by Da_bang80:
quote:Originally posted by Pensive's Wetness: When did i get those snazzy pens that i keep seeing on some of the senior staff?
Get ready for a long wait. I've been here five years and I just got Senior Member status. It's like my birthday came early this year!
Plus, he still has to go through...the initiation.
You know, Crossing the Desert, The Paddaling of the Swollen Ass.... Or mabye that was just me.. looks around nervously
Note to self: kill Liam-soon. Posted by Da_bang80 (Member # 528) on :
Just don't let him near the Sacred Parchment on Rib Night... Posted by Grokca (Member # 722) on :
Then how will we find out if he's the chosen one or not.
Posted by Jason Abbadon (Member # 882) on :
More paddeling, naturally.
Posted by Peregrinus (Member # 504) on :
I don't have a paddle... My dad has one from his college fraternity, but I didn't go that route.
I have a cricket bat, though. Will that work?
--Jonah
Posted by Peregrinus (Member # 504) on :
NEED EVERYONE'S ATTENTION FOR A SECOND!
I'm going to a meeting thingie on climate change this evening, and I wanted to ask here to see if there were any questions my fellow Flareites wanted me to take with me. Friend of mine from church is behind it, and chairing it. He's an oceanographer studying (among other things) the exact current status of the Atlantic Conveyer.
![[Wink]](wink.gif)
![[Smile]](smile.gif)
![[Big Grin]](biggrin.gif)