Basically I'm looking for your opinions on the post war balance of power in the alpha quadrant. The relative positions of the big 3 allies, the smaller states and the Ferengi, as well as the Cardies and anyone else you may think is relevant.
Fire away.
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Re: Russia in WWII
"Hey, we butchered Poles! Thats OK."
- DT.
Some of the other powers that were mentioned once and never seen again might try to take advantage of the situation. The Tholians, for one. They might start making potshots at the Federation. And those little bugs from "Conspiracy" might come back, as this would be the ideal time to return. After all, the Federation was hit hard, and there might not be enough forces to stop them this time.
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"What happens on the edges of infinity, the never-never land of mathematics?"
-Miss Hodgin
In BAAAD shape. They've lost almost half of their fleet, either out-and-out destroyed, or so badly damaged that they're no good until they get 4 months in a repair dry-dock (and there are long waiting lists for those already). Enlistment in Starfleet is down --it's viewed widely as the "military" these days, and support for even scientific-missions is WAAAAY down. Almost everyone has lost a family member or friend in the War, and people are scared of losing more loved ones. I'd guesstimate Federation casualties alone in the several billion range.
The Klingons --
They're about as bad off as the Federation, except, of course, that if ANYTHING, they've got more people wanting into the military. Their infastructure is a bit battered, but they're making great strides into fixing that. Of course, the Federation is helping them rebuild (with what limited resources the Fed. has at the moment). Throughout the Empire, there's a mixed view -- at one hand, there is an elation that the war has been won, by the Klingons of course ("the Federation? Bah! We fought off the Dominion ourselves, they just guarded the supply lines..."). On the other, there is the knowledge that the Dominion hasn't been beaten, and is still a powerful force, albeit on the other side of the Wormhole, so there is a strong push to build the military even bigger and more powerful than before (and then you've got the naysayers who are blaming everything on the Federation for intervening when the Klingons went after Cardassia).
The Romulans --
Hell, who knows? I don't think the War touched their home space that much. They're might be issues with them refusing to relinquish control of planets they've "liberated" (much like the USSR and Western Europe after WWII). I'll let someone else speculate on the Romulans
The Ferengi will profit from the mess, helping to rebuild economies, renting cargo ships, arranging trades (for a 20% commission and all). Especially with Grand Nagus Nog, the Ferengi will begin to become the "Good Samaritans" and not the "Pirates" of the Galaxy. Maybe ...
The Breen have probably retreated into isolation. It's a good bet that the Fed, Romulans, and Klingons, will be keeping a close eye on them, and reacting quickly -- and harshly -- to any Breen attempt to leave their space. They probably escaped the war unscathed except for that (and the ships and troops lost).
The Cardassians have been destroyed. Military rule. In a few years, the Federation will arrange for "free elections", and Cardassia will be ruled again by Cardassians. The colonies will be granted independence, and a Cardassian military force will be severely restricted to a handful of ships for defensive purposes. It's a good bet that the Cardassians will join the Federation and become a shining new member and a steadfast ally.
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However, if you want to go for how it should be... I think the Feds are likely to overextend themselves. They'll think they can deal just fine w/ the losses they've suffered, and they'll try to act like everything is "happy and normal again". I think this will cause them to become weaker and weaker for quite some time before they finally realize what they're doing wrong. It'll probably take some sort of outside attack (which they will probably survive, but not very well) to make them come to their senses. The most likely source of this attack would probably be the Romulans, who are no doubt going back into isolation to concentrate all their efforts on bringing themselves back up to speed after their losses.
I see two possibilities for the Klingons. Either they'll stay the way they've always been by living off the Feds while they rebuild, or they'll finally have to drop (for the most part) their focus on their military (since they haven't got much of one left). Basically, they'll either stay exactly the same, or change totally. It's really hard to say which...
I don't think the Cardassians are in a position to do much of anything. They're pretty much home-bound for quite a while, so they can rebuild.
I also don't think anyone's going to hear anything at all out of the Breen for quite some time. They were always relatively small-time thugs before and no-one really went out of their way to mess w/ them. Now that they've drawn major attention to themselves and gotten their collective ass kicked, I'm sure they're going to retreat back to their own space and keep quiet, hoping everyone will just forget what happened and not come after them.
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"Yahweh likes to meddle in the affairs of us, as it makes him feel powerful, and he forgets the many years of torment he endured at Supreme Being Secondary School. Many a day would 'Thor - God of Thunder' & 'Mars - God of War' steal Yahweh's lunch money and hang him up by his breeches, all the while belittling Yahweh by insulting his very odd, and non-imposing God name, usually by adding a valley girl accent, and having it come out as 'yeah! way!'."
-Ultra Magnus, 15-Dec-2000
It is very likely that the Romulans are going to argue about the distant systems they liberated, and they'll probably want the Neutral Zone to be abolished, and have free passage to the Wormhole.
Maybe there's a new Emperor (or whatever rules the RSE) who is more open to the Vulcan Reunification and treaties with the Federation.
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"There's no such thing as overkill when it comes to killing."
-Gaseous Anomaly, December 11, 2000
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Titan Fleet Yards - Harry Doddema's Star Trek Site
Federation
The Federation has suffered heavy losses, also among the civilists after the Jemmies have captured several planets, including Betazed. It just wouldn't be realistic if they were suddenly all happy again. Starfleet will likely become a more militaristic organization than ever. Even more significant, the doctrine that every alien world is the Federation's friend unless they launch an all-out war will be dropped. The Federation won't tolerate any aggressions as they still did in TNG and even DS9 during the two years before the war actually started. In some way the attitude of Adm Leyton finally prevails.
Romulans
I think it's most likely they go into isolation again. The events in "Image in the Sand" and "Inter Arma Enim Silent Leges" as well as the absence of Romulan leaders during many allied briefings show that they still don't want to be a part of it all. They want to pursue their own business. The major problem is that the Romulans still hold some territories they took during the war, like Benzar. I doubt that they will release Benzar.
Klingons
Their civilian losses are probably rather few, and their military losses may be regarded as the price of victory. I think they are likely to become stronger than ever and a potential danger to the Federation. On the other hand, the new alliance may have more than only repaired the damage that was done in the brief war a few years before. In particular, they have Chancellor Martok who was a cold warrior in "WOTW" but subsequently became a strong supporter of the alliance with the Federation. Many of his people may follow his example, provided that he manages to get the trust of the major houses.
Cardassians
They are defeated much like Germany was after WW II. I expect that the people will succeed in rebuilding their planet, with the help of the Federation. They may become Federation members within a few years. The new Cardassia will probably be a decent and modest member world.
Bajorans
They will be able to join the Federation immediately. I don't think that after the massacre on Cardassia and the luck Bajor had in the Dominion war, there will be much left of the former hatred between the two peoples. It's a good time for a new beginning.
Ferengi
No matter what they decide to do, they will profit from the situation. I wouldn't expect that Nagus Rom will be able to change the society in a day or so, but he may add one wise Rule of Acquisition saying: "If someone is in need, help him without asking for payment - he may be a future customer".
Breen
The Breen certainly have to cope with the consequences of their agression: international isolation and trade sanctions. I don't think that they will really suffer from that, but I agree that there will be a Breen Neutral Zone they are not allowed to pass.
Dominion
It is still a question if Odo can change anything in the Geat Link, or if he will become a loyal Founder, full of hatred against the Solids. I actually fear the latter. In this case the Dominion would carry on as usual. We have to take into account that they haven't really lost anything important, except for maybe a thousand starships and a million Jem'Hadar which can be both replaced in no time. The Dominion is still a great threat, and may return any time.
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"Species 5618, human. Warp-capable, origin grid 325, physiology inefficient, below average cranium capacity, minimum redundant systems, limited regenerative abilities."
Ex Astris Scientia
He wasn't a cold warrior in WOTW ... it was the Founder who replaced him who was.
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Star Trek Gamma Quadrant
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Shop Smart -- Shop "S"-Mart
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EOH
I agree with Bernd. They're literally at a crossroads with their society. I expect things to look really dicey in the RSE for a few decades.
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"Omae o korusu..." - Heero Yuy
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Star Trek Gamma Quadrant
Average Rated 7.5 out of 10 Smileys by Fabrux
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Shop Smart -- Shop "S"-Mart
I believe the Ferengi society is built to accommodate selfishness and a constant struggle for power, so whatever a single leader does cannot be too permanent or too damaging to the society. The Ferengi are opportunists so they *cannot* be conservatives - "change" as such is never going to harm them.
The Breen:
These people seem such a mystery to the Federation that I doubt a Neutral Zone could be established. The Feds probably don't even know where the Breen territory lies! The Cardassians supposedly have an embassy on Breen (apparently, the homeworld) - but then again, Gul Dukat also thought it's bitter cold there, whereas Weyoun denied this. I believe the Breen will remain a complete mystery for quite some time. The Romulans managed that for an entire century!
The Klingons:
Here's another society that must be used to constant changes in the leadership. However, the Empire probably can't accommodate new leaders with radically new thoughts quite as easily as the Ferengi Alliance. Ascension to power is highly formulaic here, and strict following of traditions is important.
Fortunately, Martok sounds like a conservative. And Klingons have agreed to alliances with their friends and even their enemies in the past, so the general grumbling against close ties with the UFP will probably not lead to anything major. An alliance will be forged once again, and probably a rather close one this time.
I wonder if the Kahless clone will get to play a role now. He was opposed to the Klingon-UFP hostility, so he would be a great figurehead for a postwar alliance. We don't know how Martok feels about the clone, but Worf tended to agree with him and can influence Martok. Then again, Worf's opinions have the consistency of the count on a US presidential election.
Timo Saloniemi
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"Species 5618, human. Warp-capable, origin grid 325, physiology inefficient, below average cranium capacity, minimum redundant systems, limited regenerative abilities."
Ex Astris Scientia
A 1000 ships and a million Jem Hadar? This is way too much of an underestimate. I think they would've suffered upwards of 30 million losses and at least 10,000 ships. Any comments on this?
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I have been floated to this spot this hour
On a series of events
I cannot explain
--
Olivia Tremor Control
****
Read chapters one and two of "Dirk Tungsten in...The Disappearing Planet"! Read, read, read, read, read me now.
Loss of 10,000 ships by the JH would probably require losses of several thousands of SF and Klingon ships (taking to account that JH ships are on the average small and weak compared with their Alpha counterparts, due to the large number of those smallish "attack ships"). This is within the realm of possibility; if in addition to the 2,800 JH ships lost in the wormhole, the whole Alpha defence fleet of 2,400 was lost in the battle of retaking DS9 (which I doubt), this would amount to half the losses already.
In any case, the JH had shipbuilding capabilities that probably overwhelmed the opponents ten to one or better. They were short of forces in the crucial battle over the wormhole in "SoA" when able to deploy just 2,400 ships or so. Many of these ships were lost. But a year and a half later, the JH had tens of thousands of ships again, while the Feds/Klingons were now short of ships in their most crucial battle, despite not having any other front to fight on at the time.
This I see as a crucial issue in the war: the Feds and their allies did not initially realize how rapidly the Dominion beachhead could build ships even when isolated from the Gamma quadrant. They thus fought too "timidly" at first, while an early suicide attack with 95% losses would have resulted in fewer overall casualties.
With this JH growth potential given, it would also be logical to assume constant superheavy JH losses. Otherwise, why didn't the JH steamroller over their opponents with the help of huge reserves, but instead lost the war?
Timo Saloniemi
2800 ships were lost in just one engadgement.
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Re: Russia in WWII
"Hey, we butchered Poles! Thats OK."
- DT.
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"This is cooling, faster than I can..." Tori Amos "Cooling"
Beyond that, anything is possible. And perhaps future events will give us a "preferred interpretation", if Starfleet continues to expand due to advances in CGI, or then is cut to size for the purposes of telling peacetime stories of the usual "we are the only starship in range" variety.
Timo Saloniemi
Wormhole: 2800
Battle to retake DS9. They had 1254 ships in the engadgement, if the alliance broke through a section of that fleet, its not inconcieveable that they lost 200 or so vessels. Perhaps more.
Therefore we're at 3000.
Add to that vessels lost during the initial Federation Klingon attack on the shipyards at Taurus 3. Perhaps 50 ships.
Add another 50 ships lost retaking DS9. How many ships lost destroying in shipyards in episode 2 of season 7? I'd say at least another 50.
Now 3150.
Vessels lost in the final engadement of the war? Heaps, by the sound of it.
Note, that the losses in the multiple thousands are not impossible. For instance, when the breen first entered the war (Changing face of evil) they disabled or destroyed 311 vessels in the chintoka engadgement.
The bulks of the 9th fleet. If you take into account that the 9th fleet is (minimum) 300 hundred ships, and there are an absolute minimum of 20 fleets.....(you'd need that many just to protect the major federation worlds....).
Here's a fact that has been not been noted as yet. Gowron stated that 1500 ships would be holding one front against the Dominion. Worf stated they would be outnumbered 20:1. That's on the Bajoran front. What about the vulcan front, and the Romulan front? My point is that for the allies to hold their territory they must have a comparable number of ships. Therefore losses of 5000 + ships aren't unrealistic.
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Re: Russia in WWII
"Hey, we butchered Poles! Thats OK."
- DT.
Starfleet organizes itself into four Armadas (for organization purposes, you understand). These Armadas are commanded individually by a Fleet Admiral, who reports to the Fleet Supreme Commander, who is also the Senior Fleet Admiral and Commander-in-Chief (appointed from the Fleet Admirals by the Federation Council).
Each Armada is split into ten Fleets. Each Fleet, about 1,000 ships, is commanded by an Admiral.
Fleets are broken up into five Task Forces of about 200 ships each, and are commanded by a Vice Admiral.
Task Forces are subdivided into four Attack Wings of about fifty ships, and are commanded by a Rear Admiral (UH).
Attack Wings are further broken into Squadrons of ten ships, and are commanded by a Commodore (captain "fragged" to flag rank) or Rear Admiral (LH).
This is all conjecture, BTW. I do believe the senior Starfleet Officer is C-I-C due to dialogue in "Star Trek VI", where a Starfleet Admiral (and not the President) is addressed as "CIC"
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Star Trek Gamma Quadrant
Average Rated 7.5 out of 10 Smileys by Fabrux
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Come the millennium, month 12,
In the home of greatest power,
The village idiot will come forth
To be acclaimed the leader
--Nostradamus, 1555 (Allegedly)
***
"Mr. Vice President, in all due respect, it is - I'm not sure 80 percent of the people get the death tax. I know this: 100 percent will get it if I'm the president." - George W. Bush
[This message has been edited by JeffKardde (edited December 23, 2000).]
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Re: Russia in WWII
"Hey, we butchered Poles! Thats OK."
- DT.
Honestly, its hard to know. How many fronts were there? Where did the Dominion push the hardest? How did Federation member world and allies help and where? What other AQ races sided with the Dominion? Did the Dominion send task forces a roundabout way to strike at the "rear" of the Allied Forces, forcing other confrontations?
I'm going to limit my answers to Starfleet/UFP only.
Okay, these are the conclusions I'm working on. At no time were more than one and a half Armadas (fifteen thousand ships), engaged in the various front line areas. The other vessels were undergoing repairs, conducting other missions, or patrolling remote areas of the UFP or Allied powers. Now, those ships on the line would be rotated with ships off the line, so its a good bet that the majority of Starfleet would at some time or another see action. Figure two years of heavy combat ...
I would estimate that 10 - 15% of Starfleet is wrecked totally -- no hope of repair ... either totally destroyed, or damaged beyond the point of repair. That may not sound like much, but its around 6,000 starships. Figure an average crew of ... 250 sound right? You're looking at maybe a million and a half Starfleet officers and crew dead right there alone (approx. number of course, given that ship crew size varies, and people may have been able to escape).
I'd put the number of Starfleet ships damaged enough to need a trip to the drydock at a bit higher ... maybe 20%, which would mean around 8,000 ships -- again, more or less. Now, the question becomes how fast can Starfleet get these ships back into operation? How many drydocks are there? The reality is, that when the War ends, you're going to have a shitload of Starships sitting around waiting for their turn in drydock. No matter how big Starfleet and the UFP might be, I doubt anyone could have foreseen needing to refit several thousand ships at the same time. Any ship damaged enough to need a refit probably also took heavy casualties, so we could easily put the number of casualties from badly damaged ships at say a million or so?
The REAL casualties would come from Starfleet Ground Troops (Marines or otherwise). I'd imagine the Dominion's Jem'Hadar and Cardassian ground troops would be rather difficult to root from their emplacements once they've hit a world. I'm picturing some real nasty ground combat here, where it pretty much comes down to the individual soldier and his/her phaser rifle against the enemy ... ground taken one foot, and one life, at a time. I don't know how many worlds the Dominion may have grabbed, or landed troops on (which would then require Fed troops to go in), but you can bet these casualties are also very high ... much higher than whatever Starfleet's officers and crew are suffering.
But the aftermath is what you're interested in, right?
Starfleet is in trouble. 6,000 ships destroyed, almost another 10,000 completely out of service for quite a while (and drydocks and repair facilities swamped with work). This means that over one/third of Starfleet's fleet power is out of service. That's baaaad. It means everybody else is running around as fast as they can doing three jobs and being polite all at the same time.
It's safe to say that almost everyone in the Federation knows SOMEONE who died during the war -- friend, neighbor, family member, etcetra (oh, I think the Dominion - esp. the Cardies - would consider non-military targets valid military objectives, so civie casualties are very high). So, Starfleet's probably suffering a shortage of recruitment. People don't want to join Starfleet and die, and for the past few years, from Wolf 359 on, that's whats been happening. Now it really hit home, and Starfleet is understaffed.
That's my opinion
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Star Trek Gamma Quadrant
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"Mr. Vice President, in all due respect, it is - I'm not sure 80 percent of the people get the death tax. I know this: 100 percent will get it if I'm the president." - George W. Bush
Well, yes, they've been hit hard. Let's take a few numbers from "BoBW II". Shelby said they'd have the fleet back up in a year. Only 40 ships in a year! If the Feds have taken several thousand ships' worth of losses, they'll be rebuilding for a long time. On the other hand, they could *really* ramp up production of the smaller classes and have flotillas of Defiants etc guarding the borders while they build some more yards and dig in to the task of building capital ships. Besides, they may have nicked a few bits of Dom tech - "Oy, you! Teach us how to build dem ships so fast!"
Klg:-
I can see Martok bringing the Empire a lot closer to the Feds, especially with Worf wispering in his ear. Also, Martok won't stand for any red tape: being, by his own admission, not a politician, he'll steamroller reforms etc through the Council.
Rom:-
Either isolation or USSR-style holding of 'liberated' assets. Koval may manipulate things so the Roms get a little closer to the Feds (assassinating hawks in favour of doves etc).
Breen:-
Watched. Very carefully. And the Allies will probably want to have some of their tech, too. Bio ships? Yes, we'll have some of that.
Baj:-
Fed members, simple as that. Having the Bajoran Militia hook up with SF will solve a little of that manpower shortage.
Cardies:-
They'll struggle, end up taking Fed handouts (probably with a Bajoran in charge of the aid effort!!!), and become a protectorate/member.
Dom:-
I think Odo will have a job on his hands converting the other Founders, but will make it. I think they may just be willing to listen to the man who just saved their race.
Borg:-
I can't believe no-one's mentioned the lugnuts! Surely it's time they came at the Feds again, with a few more ships this time.
Note: VOY7 implies SF itn't in dire straits men/materiel wise.
Star Trek: Armada gives one fairly plausible future history, if anyone's seen it.
Er, you mean VOY7? Season Seven of Voyager? The notorious anti-continuity show? Anyway, how could that show depict Starfleet? They're on the other end of the dammed galaxy!
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Star Trek Gamma Quadrant
Average Rated 6.83 out of 10 Smileys by Fabrux
***
"If this were a dictatorship, it'd be a heck of a lot easier ... just as long as I'm the dictator." - George "Dubya" Bush, Dec 18, 2000
[This message has been edited by JeffKardde (edited December 27, 2000).]
P
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VOY7 has contact w/ AQ. Simple as that. Check startrek.com for more info. And, out of interest, when has VOY gone against canon and continuity any more than DS9, TNG, Movies or TOS? By reckoning, they've done okay.
Timo Saloniemi