Space scientists are eyeing an incoming asteroid as the first candidate for a course deflection mission - using a satellite's gravity to gently nudge a rock away from a collision with our planet. The asteroid has a one in thousands chance of hitting in the first place (in 2036), but it's close enough and relevant enough for the eggheads to start campaigning for a spacecraft to try moving it out of the way. The technique recommended is the recently-devised "Gravity Tractor" technique: they'll sling a craft into an eliptical orbit around the rock, whose gravity deflection will slowly but surely move the asteroid's course until we're out of danger.
posted
I think a better topic title would've been "KNEEL BEFORE APOPHIS!"
For those that forget, this is the same asteroid that everyone was wetting their pants over about two years ago, when preliminary calculations estimated only a 1/85 (no trailing zeroes) chance of it hitting the planet in 2029, which was not good. Now, they're fairly sure it'll miss the planet in 2029 (though it'll be really, really close), but the close encounter with the Earth's mass could change its orbit to make an actual impact more likely in 2036.
I'm impressed by the simplicity of this concept, the gravity tractor. Everyone always talks about using nukes and lasers and other crap that we really don't have, and aren't likely to have. A simple, massive satellite to nudge the asteroid out of the way is a beautiful plan, because when you're literally talking astronomical distances like these, just a tiny fraction of a degree of movement is enough to make it miss the planet entirely. And the fact that they're figuring only twelve days would be necessary to alter the trajectory is damn cool.
The only question is, what's the potential for a project like this making the situation worse? If the calculations aren't precise, it's possible that they could turn a near-miss into an impact instead.
-------------------- “Those people who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do.” — Isaac Asimov Star Trek Minutiae | Memory Alpha
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posted
Hadn't thought of that. Mind you, the Goa'uld DID once try to smash an asteroid into the Earth. Good thing everyone had seen "Armaggedon", so they'd know what to do.
My thoughts are that they send a SCIENTIFIC probe up there to do the dual job of saving the planet and studying an asteroid, thus justifying the $300M+ price tag. It doesn't have to be super-heavy, either... It's all about trajectories and time. After the twelve day course alteration is confirmed, they could normalize the orbit into something that won't send it careening into anything, then start up a scientific mission to examine and explore the place.
posted
Hmmm...the rock coming our way will be a huge momoent in scientific study- drop a lander on the surface, equiped with all sorts of sensors and cameras, let the rock go by (or get moved away with a bit of help from a tractor-satelite) and see where the old rock goes...assuming they land of the side away from earth, and assuming little or no tumble, it could be a fantastic platform for space images and a geologists fantasy.
Or re-direct it to Mars and watch some planetary destruction the like of which we've neber seen! Nothing says "you've arrived" like destroying your neighboring planet.
-------------------- Justice inclines her scales so that wisdom comes at the price of suffering. -Aeschylus, Agamemnon
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Cartman
just made by the Presbyterian Church
Member # 256
posted
That's "pull away", not "nudge away". Unless of course negative nudges are allowed now, but we don't really want that, do we? DO WE?
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Da_bang80
A few sectors short of an Empire
Member # 528
posted
I mentioned this in another forum a while back, and some little idiot tried to use high school physics to prove me wrong. Needless to say, I laughed, then owned him with his own physics.
-------------------- Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change. The courage to change the things I cannot accept. And the wisdom to hide the bodies of all the people I had to kill today because they pissed me off.
quote:Originally posted by MinutiaeMan: I'm impressed by the simplicity of this concept, the gravity tractor. Everyone always talks about using nukes and lasers and other crap that we really don't have, and aren't likely to have. A simple, massive satellite to nudge the asteroid out of the way is a beautiful plan, because when you're literally talking astronomical distances like these, just a tiny fraction of a degree of movement is enough to make it miss the planet entirely. And the fact that they're figuring only twelve days would be necessary to alter the trajectory is damn cool.
Very true, and I also like the simplicity. However, when people start talking about nukes and lasers, most likely they're referring to the stray rock we missed and is going to destroy the Earth two days from now. This gravity tractor won't work well enough for a short lead time like that.
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posted
I also like the idea of making a cut into the asteroid and using the gas trapped inside it, to essentially 'jet' it away from Earth under its own power, literally. This idea is the most plausible though that I have seen.
-------------------- errrr...
Registered: Jan 2007
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posted
Assuming that we know there's gas trapped inside it and can really cut that far into it, and that there's enough gas to make a serious course change (not just spin it around).
I wonder what a large detonation(s) near the asteroid's trajectory would achieve (nuclear toys again, I know and I know there'd be protests sending a nuke up on a rocket)? Most military ICBM's are designed to send multiple warheads to very precise coordinates- they could be staggered to explode at several points on the asteroid's trajectory- providing several shockwave "nudges" instead of one large all-or-nothing blast....or possibly several tries at destroying the asteroid, instead of placing all our eggs in one missile.
All depending on the size, speed, tumble, shape and composition of the asteroid, of course. probably a hundred other factors too
-------------------- Justice inclines her scales so that wisdom comes at the price of suffering. -Aeschylus, Agamemnon
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posted
Didn't you ever play "Outpost," Jason? All a nuke would do is fracture the asteroid into three pieces and make the whole thing worse!
-------------------- “Those people who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do.” — Isaac Asimov Star Trek Minutiae | Memory Alpha
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Da_bang80
A few sectors short of an Empire
Member # 528
posted
quote:Originally posted by MinutiaeMan: Didn't you ever play "Outpost," Jason? All a nuke would do is fracture the asteroid into three pieces and make the whole thing worse!
Outpost being that really old Win 3.1 game? That game was so hard! I'd get a decent little city going and it would just die for no apparent reason. I had no idea what I was doing wrong. Then again, I was 7 at the time...
-------------------- Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change. The courage to change the things I cannot accept. And the wisdom to hide the bodies of all the people I had to kill today because they pissed me off.
Cartman
just made by the Presbyterian Church
Member # 256
posted
quote:Originally posted by Jason Abbadon: I wonder what a large detonation(s) near the asteroid's trajectory would achieve (nuclear toys again, I know and I know there'd be protests sending a nuke up on a rocket)? Most military ICBM's are designed to send multiple warheads to very precise coordinates- they could be staggered to explode at several points on the asteroid's trajectory- providing several shockwave "nudges" instead of one large all-or-nothing blast....or possibly several tries at destroying the asteroid, instead of placing all our eggs in one missile.
Slight problem with that: there's no atmosphere to produce any shockwaves in.
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posted
Yeah, you'd be relying on the fragmentation to push it, wouldn't you? Unless there was a highly compressed force in the explosive, in which case could it work?
-------------------- errrr...
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quote:Hadn't thought of that. Mind you, the Goa'uld DID once try to smash an asteroid into the Earth.
My god, you're right. And before them, the Arachnids! And they succeeded, too. As far as I'm concerned, Buenos Aires is wiped off the map. It was like 9/11 times a thousand.
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Shik
Starship database: completed; History of Starfleet: done; website: probably never
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posted
Bugs. Not Arachnids, bugs.
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