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Originally posted by Mucus:
Well, that all depends on your definition of credible.

As to the rest, assuming that South Korea did it, why hide away the soldiers? They'd be a potential information leak, just have them go down with the ship. Second, there's no reason to assume that if South Korea faked it, that they *must* have faked it in order to start a war. Third, there's no reason to assume that if the situation was faked, that South Korea necessarily faked it.

(I would also add, that if we go with your "rogue submarine captain" theory, that a captain from Israel or the US sounds more likely than Japan or the Philippines since they're further from the area and have more to gain)

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That's the flaw with all such conspiracy theories- peple love ecrets and can never keep them-
There would already be soldiers (o their families) coming forward to expose such a fake.

And really, to what motive would south Korea do this? It hurts their econemy and kills the party in power to be unable to answer the public outcry for some response.

Contrast that with al the reasons the North has for doing this- they might be looking for an excus to withdraw from the world stage for a time to consolodate their hierarchy-
It seems Kim's brother just got a big promotion into a military job and Kim's eldest son is kinda a slacker, so they need some time to get their shit together.
That's the word bn the street, anyway.

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Justice inclines her scales so that wisdom comes at the price of suffering.
-Aeschylus, Agamemnon

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North Korea said it is examining what "additional" steps it will take against Aijalon Mahli Gomes, an American man who has been sentenced to eight years hard labor for illegally entering North Korea. He was arrested after crossing the North Korea-China border on January 25.

"The U.S. government is requesting the DPRK to leniently set him free from a humanitarian stand, but such thing can never happen under the prevailing situation and there remains only the issue of what harsher punishment will be meted out to him.

If the U.S. persists in its hostile approach toward the DPRK, the latter will naturally be compelled to consider the issue of applying a wartime law to him," the new agency reported.

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Regarding another nuclear "rogue" state -- North Korea -- Panetta said the question of who will succeed leader Kim Jong Il is likely behind recent military acts such as the alleged sinking of a South Korean navy ship.
"I think that could have been part of it, in order to establish credibility for his son," Panetta said of a likely successor, adding: "His son is very young. His son is very untested. His son is loyal to his father and to North Korea, but his son does not have the kind of credibility with the military, because nobody really knows what he's going to be like."

However, Panetta said he doubted there would be further escalation, noting that "in the end, they always back away from the brink, and I think they'll do that now."

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Originally posted by Nim:
Here are some recent, depressing insights from CIA director Leon Panetta:

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Regarding another nuclear "rogue" state -- North Korea -- Panetta said the question of who will succeed leader Kim Jong Il is likely behind recent military acts such as the alleged sinking of a South Korean navy ship.
"I think that could have been part of it, in order to establish credibility for his son," Panetta said of a likely successor, adding: "His son is very young. His son is very untested. His son is loyal to his father and to North Korea, but his son does not have the kind of credibility with the military, because nobody really knows what he's going to be like."

However, Panetta said he doubted there would be further escalation, noting that "in the end, they always back away from the brink, and I think they'll do that now."

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I don't mean that avoiding a war with potentially horrendous collateral damage is depressing, but if things are like Panetta says, NK is criminally cynical. Blowing up a ship with a hundred men onboard, just to groom your heir in the eyes of his peers (counting on never being held accountable for it), that's pretty damn nasty. That's something out of the first 15 minutes of a Bond movie, pardon the black/white analogy.

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