Saltah'na
Chinese Canadian, or 75% Commie Bastard.
Member # 33
posted
There was a discussion about Osama Bin Laden on MSNBC (i think it was), and where he may have gone wrong. Here are the factors that I have gleaned from that broadcast, as well as others, including newspaper articles.
1) Technological Superiority: This is a given, despite the losses incurred by the Americans at Vietnam, as well as the losses by the Soviets in the earlier Afghan War.
2) Vietnam: Of course, the Americans had their butts whipped in Vietnam. Osama was betting heavily on an encore.
3) The Soviets: The Afghans pushed back the Soviets, and the Soviet Union self-destructed afterwards. Again, Osama was betting heavily on an encore against the Americans.
4) Pakistan: Perhaps the most important blunder was the underestimation of Pakistan. People were saying that Pakistan would stand defiant against the Americans and fight with the Taliban (after all, where DID the taliban come from anyways?)
5) Unity among Americans: Osama Bin Laden said in many occasions that the Americans were the most corrupt people in the planet and that blahblahblah..... you know the rest. What Bin Laden was hoping to accomplish was a deathblow that would leave America forever reeling. Americans would wander around dazed and confused, infighting would occur on who to blame for this tragedy, the country would destabilize into chaos, making it prime for another deathblow against the States. Who would have expected that the United States would emerge with renewed resolve? Obviously he did not expect a good portion of the Muslim world to side with the States.
He let his own pride get in the way. And he lost. Big time. Any other comments?
-------------------- "And slowly, you come to realize, it's all as it should be, you can only do so much. If you're game enough, you could place your trust in me. For the love of life, there's a tradeoff, we could lose it all but we'll go down fighting...." - David Sylvian FreeSpace 2, the greatest space sim of all time, now remastered!
Registered: Mar 1999
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posted
Actually Vietnam and Soviet involvement in Afganistan is a lot different then now.
In Vietnam, the Vietnamese have full support from Russian and Chinese in equippments, intellegence reports, and training. Plus, the American lost the war largely because of what was happening at home.
Soviet with Afganistan is very much the same story as the one with American in Vietnam. Also, Soviet was using their version of "blitzkrieg" with mass armors and infantry, which was design for European battlefield with realtively low and flat land formation. Again, on paper wise, the Soviet won the war, but in reality they lost because of drain of resources and uncertainly and lack of total victory.
With American's "war on terror", U.S. learn the mistakes of Soviet and Vietnam and decide not to invade instead using air raid to destory infractures and moral of Afgan army. Also, Afgan army are poorly funded with limited resources to fight a war.
-------------------- "George Washington said, 'I cannot tell a lie.' Richard Nixon said, 'I cannot tell the truth.' Bill Clinton said, 'I cannot tell the difference.'"
-- comedian TOM SMOTHERS, from his latest stage act with brother DICK SMOTHERS.
Registered: Jan 2000
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posted
On the other hand, guerilla warfare tactics (whether you call them 'terrorism', 'freedom fighting' etc.) can effect political change ... or at least make people feel like they're making a difference. Aside from the scale of the events, how is smashing a plane into a building any different from Polish partisans sabotauging the German war machine? Both Bin Laden and the Partisans viewed the (Americans/Germans) as their enemy, occupying their country (Saudi Arabia/Poland).
posted
If Bin Laden/Omar was counting on an encore of the Soviet invasion and/or Vietnam, then they forgot to factor in the Northern Alliance. That's essentially been the US strategy, to beat the bad guys up from afar and let the people who know the territory do the real fighting. And it's worked.
Probably, they just got overconfident and wrote off the Northern Alliance as nearly finished off. Instead, they came back and overran the country.
-------------------- “Those people who think they know everything are a great annoyance to those of us who do.” — Isaac Asimov Star Trek Minutiae | Memory Alpha
Registered: Nov 2000
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posted
Bin Laden went wrong by being a fanatical nut job in the first freakin place.
A massive response was called for, a massive response is what he's getting. Heck, the Japanses killed less than 3,000 people in their sneak attack on Pearl Harbor and we went to war with them. The only thing preventing a like reaction today is that we don't have a nation state to point the finger at.
Which seems to be Bush's major problem. As far as the actual bombing and military action, war is hell and the military is doing fine. But the war rhetoric by Bush is not working and is too disjointed to really do any good.
-------------------- Great is the guilt of an unnecessary war. ~ohn Adams
Once again the Bush Administration is worse than I had imagined, even though I thought I had already taken account of the fact that the Bush administration is invariably worse than I can imagine. ~Brad DeLong
You're just babbling incoherently. ~C. Montgomery Burns
Registered: Mar 1999
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Battle Damage Chest Insignia MIB
Ex-Member
posted
I agree. Has anyone heard Bush get any more specific about the war? All he seems to be doing is giving these very vague comments about slaying the evil doers and what not.
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Cartman
just made by the Presbyterian Church
Member # 256
posted
I'd hardly call the current 'war' a 'massive' one. Besides, what would be to gain?
1). There is not much *left* to destroy or capture in Afghanistan. 2). It won't make the job of finding OBL any easier. 3). It would only extend the suffering of the *innocent* Afghanian population.
[ December 11, 2001: Message edited by: Cartman ]
-------------------- ".mirrorS arE morE fuN thaN televisioN" - TEH PNIK FLAMIGNO
Registered: Nov 1999
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posted
NEVER be specific about what you're going to do next, and how, outside of your innermost, utterly trustworthy circle.
It keeps your enemies and potential enemies off balance.
Saddam Hussein, if he's at ALL rational, should be pooping bricks wondering if he's next on the list.
So should Arafat, and so should all the leaders of all the terrorist organizations, everywhere. They should all be wondering: "Is a cruise missile already on its way to my house/cave? Who walking past me is a FBI agest?"
-------------------- "The best defense is not a good offense. The best defense is a terrifyingly accurate and devastatingly powerful offense, with multiply-overlapping kill zones and time-on-target artillery strikes." -- Laurence, Archangel of the Sword
Registered: Mar 1999
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posted
I'd call the current military reaction massive in light of the recent past.
Firing cruise missiles or a fly over bombing of a dictator's tent is not massive. And massive might not have been taken very well at that time anyway.
The 10th Mountain Division, a Expeditionary Marine Force, large numbers of aircraft bombing and unknown numbers of Special Forces do not WWII make; however, they do put a significant number of American in harms way.
-------------------- Great is the guilt of an unnecessary war. ~ohn Adams
Once again the Bush Administration is worse than I had imagined, even though I thought I had already taken account of the fact that the Bush administration is invariably worse than I can imagine. ~Brad DeLong
You're just babbling incoherently. ~C. Montgomery Burns
Registered: Mar 1999
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posted
I think that his first problem was an under estimation of the American people. He didn't count on a calculated attack but counted on kneejerk reaction of lobing bombs all over the middle east and helping him to start the revolutions in the Islamic countries which his groups have been trying to do for 30 years. This was not so much an attack on the western way of life as some have been saying but an attempt to start revolutions in the islamic world to turn them into more fundalmentalist governments. He was hoping that the US. would start dropping cruise missles all over the place and then he could say to the people in the middle east "Look how your western friends are killing moslems, you should help us throw off the yokes of the pro-western governments." Instead all he got was a calculated response which centred on one country(not a middle eastern one). And his revolutions failed. I think we can give credit to Dick Cheney(spelling) and Colin Powel and their aides for having a good understanding of the middle eastern situation from their experience in the Gulf War. We can also give credit to George Bush for being just smart enough to take their advice. If Bush was any dumber who knows what would have happened.
-------------------- "and none of your usual boobery." M. Burns
Registered: Oct 2001
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Da_bang80
A few sectors short of an Empire
Member # 528
posted
"5) Unity among Americans: Osama Bin Laden said in many occasions that the Americans were the most corrupt people in the planet and that blahblahblah..... you know the rest. What Bin Laden was hoping to accomplish was a deathblow that would leave America forever reeling. Americans would wander around dazed and confused, infighting would occur on who to blame for this tragedy, the country would destabilize into chaos, making it prime for another deathblow against the States. Who would have expected that the United States would emerge with renewed resolve? Obviously he did not expect a good portion of the Muslim world to side with the States"
Japan made the same mistake when they attacked pearl harbor(I'M NOT BASHIN THEM OR ANYTHING, JUST STATING A POINT). They believed that if they struck hard enough, the US would be too dazed to mount an offensive. As history shows they were wrong... (I had this discussion with my friend, he thought i was bashing the japanese. I just want to say, i'm not, and i hold no animosity towards them, except for inventing pokemon)
-------------------- Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change. The courage to change the things I cannot accept. And the wisdom to hide the bodies of all the people I had to kill today because they pissed me off.
quote: I had this discussion with my friend, he thought i was bashing the japanese. I just want to say, i'm not, and i hold no animosity towards them, except for inventing pokemon)
Plus they changed the history about how it happened and what did happened during WWII.
Which I believe is the reason why the vast majority of Chinese still hold a grudge against the Japanese to this day
[ December 15, 2001: Message edited by: BlueElectron ]
-------------------- "George Washington said, 'I cannot tell a lie.' Richard Nixon said, 'I cannot tell the truth.' Bill Clinton said, 'I cannot tell the difference.'"
-- comedian TOM SMOTHERS, from his latest stage act with brother DICK SMOTHERS.
Registered: Jan 2000
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