posted
I can't be certain, but can't we detect a nuclear explosion pretty much anywhere on the planet? It'd either be through the tremors or the EMP. Or am I confusing sci-fi with the real world again?
Registered: Jul 2002
| IP: Logged
posted
I'm afraid your grasp on reality may be slipping! ;-)
According to the news today there are people who are looking very hard for any signs of radioactivity that weren't there before. Subterranean detonations are all very well, but there is still a measurable "leakage" of radioactivity above ground. Quite a lot more than most people assume, in fact. According to the news, as yet there is no evidence of any, so we're still in the watch and wait phase. All we know is that the ground shook and there are several more conventional ways of achieving that.
Registered: Jul 2006
| IP: Logged
quote:Originally posted by Lurker Emeritus: Something to bear in mind is that this test has not been independently verified. For all we know, it was the worlds biggest TNT landmine. If NKs real priority is, basically, attention grabbing then hoaxing the Security Council is just as good as actually building and detonating a nuke, with the added advantage that a big hole full of TNT is alot cheaper and more readily available than acquiring and processing uranium to weapons grade and building a proper bomb.
Perhaps he detonated all those models he bought at Christie's Star Trek Auction.
Since there's no supposed radiation and other traces of a nuclear bomb, then I feel that Kim is just pulling a ruse to get his way. I think he's just crazy enough to play a practical joke on the whole world. The thing is if other nation take military action against him, the joke will be on him.
Registered: Feb 2005
| IP: Logged
posted
I have read today that North Korea advised China in advance of the "test" that they should expect a detonation of the order of 4 kilotons. In the event, the bang barely registered at 1 kiloton.
Numerous possibilities suggest themselves.
1. TNT Hoax. The 4 kiloton estimate was exaggeration.
2. Bungled TNT Hoax. They only managed to detonate 1000 tons of the explosive. I was inspired to this idea by a story from WWI in which the British Army spent months tunnelling under a German trench fortress and stacking hundreds of tons of blackpowder beneath it. It was supposed to be a giant land mine to destroy the fort. Unfortunately, they bungled it. They did not provide sufficient ignition and for various other technical reasons, when the thing was fired, most of the blackpowder was ejected into the air unburnt and fell back onto the landscape. Ruined the German's day, though.
3. Small Bomb. Again, 4 kilotons was across-the-table diplomatic dick swinging exaggeration for the benefit of Dear Leaders closest and most powerful ally. An alternative spin is that they probably don't have sufficient weapons grade material for a bomb that large.
4. Badly Designed Bomb. Perhaps it was 4k, but the design wasn't A-OK, so it didn't go boom right and only part of the bomb detonated.
5. Call me in the morning if there's any actual news.
Registered: Jul 2006
| IP: Logged
posted
The thing is, it's really quite hard to build a nuke that small. The odds that NK pulled it off on their first try are vanishingly small. Either there was no bomb, or the bomb fizzled.
-------------------- "This is why you people think I'm so unknowable. You don't listen!" - God, "God, the Devil and Bob"
Registered: Mar 1999
| IP: Logged
quote: Bungled TNT Hoax. They only managed to detonate 1000 tons of the explosive.
I've just got back from a debate about Britain's nuclear deterrant which featured Col. Tim Collins and North Korea came up. He made this very point, mentioning that in regimes such as the DPRK it is very hard to tell the Dear Leader that a project such as this has failed or cannot be achieved. As a result it's tempting to fake it.
Personally, I think either a fake or a fizzle are the most likely scenarios.
Registered: Feb 2002
| IP: Logged
Shik
Starship database: completed; History of Starfleet: done; website: probably never
Member # 343
posted
Deer Leader.
-------------------- "The French have a saying: 'mise en place'—keep everything in its fucking place!"
Registered: Jun 2000
| IP: Logged
Da_bang80
A few sectors short of an Empire
Member # 528
posted
quote:Originally posted by WizArtist II: I was always taught to punch a bully in the nose and ask him if he really wanted another....
I used to bean them over the head with a baseball bat, then swing around and knock out thier teeth when they're doubled over in pain.
-------------------- Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change. The courage to change the things I cannot accept. And the wisdom to hide the bodies of all the people I had to kill today because they pissed me off.
quote:Originally posted by Jason Abbadon: As to selling a nuke- Bin Laden's probably not a contender...now Chavez.... that I could easily see: he's probably already got a deal with Putin though.
Er...look at your source. Really- look at him! Everyone from Tommy franks to Colin Powell have voiced concerns over Putin selling nuclear material/know-how to whoever has the money- Russia officially says it cant account for all of it's nuclear arsenal already.
But, it also does not mean Chaves wants a nuke (conceded).
I've read three intresting things about the "test" so far- a chinese scientist reported a detonation of only about 500 tons of TNT (spaced out underground, it would still be a huuuge detonation). A russian official said it was "definitely" a nuclear detonation (contradicting anything reported thus far),..and a third estimate that NK's best would be about the same yield as a Hiroshima bomb (still over ten times the chinese estimate).
Japan's sent supersoic research planes throught the region to search for any signs of radioactivity...but have not reported anything (at least not publicly).
My wild guess- Kim was testing the world's reaction.
France said if any test really occured, it must have failed.
-------------------- Justice inclines her scales so that wisdom comes at the price of suffering. -Aeschylus, Agamemnon
Registered: Aug 2002
| IP: Logged
Da_bang80
A few sectors short of an Empire
Member # 528
posted
quote:Originally posted by B.J.: I can't be certain, but can't we detect a nuclear explosion pretty much anywhere on the planet? It'd either be through the tremors or the EMP. Or am I confusing sci-fi with the real world again?
You're right we can detect a nuclear explosion through seismometers (sp?) We can even tell the difference between an earthquake (Lots of vibrations) and a nuclear explosion (one large pulse)
-------------------- Grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change. The courage to change the things I cannot accept. And the wisdom to hide the bodies of all the people I had to kill today because they pissed me off.
Printer-friendly view of this topic
