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Military Charts Movement of Conflict in Iraq Toward Chaos

WASHINGTON, Oct. 30 � A classified briefing prepared two weeks ago by the United States Central Command portrays Iraq as edging toward chaos, in a chart that the military is using as a barometer of civil conflict.

A one-page slide shown at the Oct. 18 briefing provides a rare glimpse into how the military command that oversees the war is trying to track its trajectory, particularly in terms of sectarian fighting.

The slide includes a color-coded bar chart that is used to illustrate an �Index of Civil Conflict.� It shows a sharp escalation in sectarian violence since the bombing of a Shiite shrine in Samarra in February, and tracks a further worsening this month despite a concerted American push to tamp down the violence in Baghdad.

In fashioning the index, the military is weighing factors like the ineffectual Iraqi police and the dwindling influence of moderate religious and political figures, rather than more traditional military measures such as the enemy�s fighting strength and the control of territory.

The conclusions the Central Command has drawn from these trends are not encouraging, according to a copy of the slide that was obtained by The New York Times. The slide shows Iraq as moving sharply away from �peace,� an ideal on the far left side of the chart, to a point much closer to the right side of the spectrum, a red zone marked �chaos.� As depicted in the command�s chart, the needle has been moving steadily toward the far right of the chart.

An intelligence summary at the bottom of the slide reads �urban areas experiencing �ethnic cleansing� campaigns to consolidate control� and �violence at all-time high, spreading geographically.� According to a Central Command official, the index on civil strife has been a staple of internal command briefings for most of this year. The analysis was prepared by the command�s intelligence directorate, which is overseen by Brig. Gen. John M. Custer.

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Great is the guilt of an unnecessary war.
~ohn Adams

Once again the Bush Administration is worse than I had imagined, even though I thought I had already taken account of the fact that the Bush administration is invariably worse than I can imagine.
~Brad DeLong

You're just babbling incoherently.
~C. Montgomery Burns

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Originally posted by Lee:
There is nothing more I can teach the boy. The Apprentice is now the Master. *sob* I'm so proud. . .

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Originally posted by TSN:

"Fucking Raqi's and thier retard names."

You live in "Saskatchewan", dumbass.

And you can't even spell "their". I don't think the names are the problem.

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Originally posted by Nim:
I hear Pinochet got his amnesty revoked just recently and is now slated for conviction again. I promise you he'll die before the gavel drops. Cyanide or something. Whatever it was Milosevic took.

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Time for Rumsfeld to go

�So long as our government requires the backing of an aroused and informed public opinion ... it is necessary to tell the hard bruising truth.�

That statement was written by Pulitzer Prize-winning war correspondent Marguerite Higgins more than a half-century ago during the Korean War.

But until recently, the �hard bruising� truth about the Iraq war has been difficult to come by from leaders in Washington.

One rosy reassurance after another has been handed down by President Bush, Vice President Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld: �mission accomplished,� the insurgency is �in its last throes,� and �back off,� we know what we�re doing, are a few choice examples.

Military leaders generally toed the line, although a few retired generals eventually spoke out from the safety of the sidelines, inciting criticism equally from anti-war types, who thought they should have spoken out while still in uniform, and pro-war foes, who thought the generals should have kept their critiques behind closed doors.

Now, however, a new chorus of criticism is beginning to resonate. Active-duty military leaders are starting to voice misgivings about the war�s planning, execution and dimming prospects for success.

Army Gen. John Abizaid, chief of U.S. Central Command, told a Senate Armed Services Committee in September: �I believe that the sectarian violence is probably as bad as I�ve seen it ... and that if not stopped, it is possible that Iraq could move towards civil war.�

Last week, someone leaked to The New York Times a Central Command briefing slide showing an assessment that the civil conflict in Iraq now borders on �critical� and has been sliding toward �chaos� for most of the past year. The strategy in Iraq has been to train an Iraqi army and police force that could gradually take over for U.S. troops in providing for the security of their new government and their nation.

But despite the best efforts of American trainers, the problem of molding a viciously sectarian population into anything resembling a force for national unity has become a losing proposition.

For two years, American sergeants, captains and majors training the Iraqis have told their bosses that Iraqi troops have no sense of national identity, are only in it for the money, don�t show up for duty and cannot sustain themselves.

Meanwhile, colonels and generals have asked their bosses for more troops. Service chiefs have asked for more money.

And all along, Rumsfeld has assured us that things are well in hand.

Now, the president says he�ll stick with Rumsfeld for the balance of his term in the White House.

This is a mistake. It is one thing for the majority of Americans to think Rumsfeld has failed. But when the nation�s current military leaders start to break publicly with their defense secretary, then it is clear that he is losing control of the institution he ostensibly leads.

These officers have been loyal public promoters of a war policy many privately feared would fail. They have kept their counsel private, adhering to more than two centuries of American tradition of subordination of the military to civilian authority.

And although that tradition, and the officers� deep sense of honor, prevent them from saying this publicly, more and more of them believe it.

Rumsfeld has lost credibility with the uniformed leadership, with the troops, with Congress and with the public at large. His strategy has failed, and his ability to lead is compromised. And although the blame for our failures in Iraq rests with the secretary, it will be the troops who bear its brunt.

This is not about the midterm elections. Regardless of which party wins Nov. 7, the time has come, Mr. President, to face the hard bruising truth:

Donald Rumsfeld must go.

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Great is the guilt of an unnecessary war.
~ohn Adams

Once again the Bush Administration is worse than I had imagined, even though I thought I had already taken account of the fact that the Bush administration is invariably worse than I can imagine.
~Brad DeLong

You're just babbling incoherently.
~C. Montgomery Burns